EUR/AUD breakout attempt: Resistance levels in focus

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Euro vs Australian Dollar up 0.61% today

Highlights

EUR/AUD trades above short- and medium-term trend levels but remains below the long-term moving average, indicating mixed trend alignment.
Multiple strength indicators including MACD, ADX and oscillators confirm strong upside momentum, but overbought readings warn of possible pullback.
EUR/AUD is projected to range between A$1.6135 and A$1.6297 over 2 to 3 sessions with over 80% up probability.

Buyer dominance persists as overbought signals warn of correction

On the hourly chart, EUR/AUD is trading above its MA-20 at A$1.614 and MA-50 at A$1.6119, signaling short- and medium-term buyer control, while remaining below the MA-200 at A$1.6439. Immediate support is noted at the Ichimoku Kijun of A$1.6164. Momentum indicators align on the bullish side: MACD and ADX are both in buy territory, Bull/Bear Power shows clear buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator validates the upside drive. However, oscillators such as RSI at 86.79, Stoch RSI, and CCI all show deep overbought readings, raising the likelihood of a near-term correction despite the current strength.

Upside breakout favored as volatility bands constrain EUR/AUD

In the near term, EUR/AUD is expected to consolidate within the A$1.6135 to A$1.6297 corridor, reflecting its typical short-term volatility band. The probability of an upward breakout is above 80%, while the chance of a reversal below support is less than 20%. A sustained push above A$1.6297 would trigger further bullish momentum, while a move below A$1.6164 would open the door to retracement toward lower supports.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees EUR/AUD maintaining a constructive tone, supported by firm momentum on the hourly chart. He notes the pair is attracting buyers above its short- and medium-term averages, even as oscillators warn of short-term exhaustion. Karapetjanc believes the probability of an upward breakout from the current consolidation band remains high. "The underlying strength suggests further upside is likely, but short-term pullbacks should not be ruled out given the overbought signals," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that downside momentum had become dominant for EUR/AUD, reflecting persistent bearish technical pressure. However, the current shift to short- and medium-term bullish alignment introduces the risk of sharp volatility if the pair decisively escapes its consolidation band, making a break above A$1.6297 or below A$1.6164 pivotal for the next directional move.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.