US Dollar vs Yen trades up after Bessent remarks and expanded US Treasury buybacks

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Us dollar vs yen rises 0.50% today

Highlights

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent challenged traders to bet against the yen, fueling speculation about Japanese policy coordination.
The US Treasury announced up to $6 billion in buybacks of longer-duration government debt, temporarily supporting the US dollar.
USD/JPY trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum and seller dominance, expected to remain within ¥152.37 to ¥156.27 over five days.

Speculation rises on policy shifts as US buybacks drive volatility

The US Dollar vs Yen currency pair was affected by public comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who challenged traders to bet against the yen, fueling speculation over Japanese monetary policy coordination. The US Treasury announced a buyback of up to $6 billion in longer-duration government debt, temporarily supporting the US dollar. Market speculation over possible Japanese policy shifts and capital repatriation added to the volatility.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that the US Treasury's recent actions led to brief upside in USD/JPY, but technicals strongly favor sellers. He points to the pair’s position below all key moving averages and negative momentum indicators as major warnings. The analyst highlights that oversold conditions and bearish sentiment persist, with resistance seen at ¥154.66 and further declines likely if support at ¥153.31 fails. He stresses that recent news flows and volatility have not reversed the credit for sellers. "Current market dynamics leave little room for optimism — I see sustained seller control and renewed downside risk ahead."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees opportunity emerging in the current volatility. He emphasizes that policy speculation and active US interventions provide a strong catalyst for future upside. Despite near-term pressure, Karapetjanc believes the bullish structure remains intact above ¥152.37. "Market positioning could shift fast — I expect further growth potential toward ¥156.27 if buyers regain control."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, points out that macro drivers and unstable sentiment have fueled only a temporary spike in USD/JPY. The analyst warns that ongoing uncertainty over Japanese policy and US Treasury moves undermines lasting confidence in the pair. "I remain wary — the risk of a deeper drop to ¥152.37 is real unless fundamentals clearly improve."

Bearish momentum prevails as oversold signals clash with intraday gains

USD/JPY is currently trading below the 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages (¥157.96, ¥159.56, and ¥158.9), indicating short-, medium-, and long-term pressure from sellers. The pair faces immediate resistance at the near-term ceiling of ¥154.66 and support at the near-term floor of ¥153.31, with the Ichimoku Kijun line (¥156.65) serving as an overhead confirmation of prevailing bearish momentum. The long-term trend setup remains bullish. Momentum indicators are broadly negative: the MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) both signal a continued sell bias. Oversold conditions are signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 26.57, Stochastic RSI at 12.32, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -167.25, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at -2.49, highlighting strong seller dominance and an oversold readout. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) reinforces the bearish trend. The pair has risen today, with the current price at ¥154.32, up ¥0.77 or 0.5% with an almost flat open, currently trading near the session high. Intraday volatility stands at 0.88%. This points to intraday strength toward the highs despite strong downward momentum signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that upward momentum in USD/JPY was supported by US policy actions but remained constrained by resistance and two-way market risks. The latest technical and fundamental signals now indicate a reinforced bearish bias with oversold conditions, making any move above ¥154.66 an important inflection point for potential reversal or further decline.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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