Can Polish government windfall tax plan funds inflation relief support USD/PLN?

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US Dollar vs Polish Zloty gains 0.61%

Highlights

Poland plans to impose a temporary 60% windfall tax on oil firms' excess profits from March to December 2026.
Tax revenues will be allocated to fuel price support and inflation management, with authorities aiming to reduce inflationary pressures.
USD/PLN holds a short- to long-term bullish trend with price expected to range between zł3.7661 and zł3.8039 and 75% probability of upward movement, though overbought indicators suggest potential for a short-term pullback.

Windfall tax plan targets oil firms as Poland acts on inflation

The Polish government is moving ahead with a plan to reintroduce a temporary 60% windfall tax on excess profits of oil firms during March to December 2026, with proceeds earmarked for fuel price relief and inflation control, according to Globalbankingandfinance. This measure signals a proactive fiscal response aimed at curbing inflationary pressures through targeted industry taxation. The market continues to monitor the broader impact of such interventions on currency stability and investor sentiment.

Upside momentum extends as USD/PLN exceeds support, hits overbought

On the hourly chart, USD/PLN remains above the MA-20 at zł3.7671, MA-50 at zł3.7633, and the long-term MA-200 at zł3.6823. Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at zł3.7679. Momentum indicators confirm strong buying signals with MACD and ADX both in Buy mode. RSI stands elevated at 75.10, while both CCI and Stoch RSI suggest overbought conditions, indicating stretched optimism within the session. Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator both highlight buyer dominance, though intraday volatility remains low.

Rangebound bias holds as upside prevails barring support breach

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/PLN is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band between zł3.7661 and zł3.8039. There is a 75% probability of an upward move, while a reversal to the downside remains less likely unless support at the Kijun level is breached. Baseline expectations call for sideways price action, with further gains likely if resistance levels are overcome and a corrective pullback possible if immediate support fails.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the USD/PLN pair maintaining its strength above key technical levels, supported by positive momentum signals. He believes the Polish government’s windfall tax plan enhances policy credibility and may help limit inflation, which could support the zloty’s stability in the medium term. The analyst expects consolidation in the short run, but a move higher is possible if resistance is cleared. "With fiscal policy turning proactive and technical momentum holding firm, I see a constructive outlook for USD/PLN as long as immediate support levels are respected."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN maintained a broadly bullish structure despite mixed short-term technical signals. The current article reinforces this outlook with fresh momentum readings and highlights the upcoming government windfall tax as a new dynamic, suggesting that traders should closely monitor policy developments alongside the technical support at zł3.7679 in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.