US Dollar vs Thai Baht slides slightly after bearish bets hit highest level in two months

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Usd/thb slips 0.51% today

Highlights

Investor short positions on the Thai baht reached their most bearish level in nearly two months as the US dollar strengthened.
Rising oil prices above $100 per barrel have increased import costs for Thailand, worsening its trade balance and pressuring the baht.
USD/THB trades above major moving averages with intraday momentum skewed to buyers, expected to move within ฿33.0338 to ฿33.4716 over five days.

Bearish sentiment climbs as oil rally strains Thailand's trade balance

Recent news reported that US dollar strength, rising oil prices above $100 per barrel, and firmer US Treasury yields have raised bearish bets against several Asian currencies, including the Thai baht. A Reuters poll found that investor short positions on the Thai baht reached the most bearish level in nearly two months. Higher oil prices were noted as a particular challenge for energy-importing Asian economies such as Thailand, as they raise import bills and worsen trade balances, adding to downward pressure on the currency.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the sustained strength in USD/THB as vulnerable given the increasing bearish sentiment and macro headwinds. Rising oil prices and persistent US dollar demand squeeze the Thai baht, while the currency’s technicals remain tilted upward. He is cautious, noting that investor positioning and overbought signals could trigger a sudden reversal. Downside risk remains if bears exploit momentum shifts below key support. "Despite the bullish bias on charts, I expect further stress on the baht and urge traders to prepare for sharp corrections if sentiment deteriorates," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees a constructive environment for USD/THB as strong fundamentals and positive sentiment fuel further advances. The pair’s resilience above major moving averages and robust investor participation underscore upward momentum. Macroeconomic tailwinds like high US yields and surging oil reinforce the bullish structure. "The setup remains favorable for further growth toward the upper range — market offers multiple opportunities on continued strength," Karapetjanc states.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes a mixed sentiment backdrop for USD/THB with buyers maintaining an edge but warning signs from overbought oscillators. Price is consolidating near intraday lows despite technical momentum leaning bullish, suggesting short-term caution. Current volatility creates setups for tactical trades around key resistance and support. "I see room for quick opportunities if the pair breaks out of its tight range, though sentiment could swing quickly on fresh news," says Turakhiya.

Bullish momentum holds despite overbought signals and narrowing range

USD/THB is trading above all major daily moving averages, with the current price at ฿33.2527 holding above the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200. This setup supports bullish trends across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes, as near-term resistance stands at ฿33.41 and support at ฿33.2303. The bullish alignment between the MA-50 and MA-200 further highlights the prevailing trend direction. Momentum indicators remain pointed toward buyers: both MACD and RSI indicate a buy signal, the ADX is neutral, but Stochastic RSI and CCI are both showing overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator confirm strong intraday buying bias, although the pair has slipped 0.51% from the previous close and is trading near intraday lows. Price movement has stayed within a narrow 0.59% volatility range, with upside momentum encountering resistance from stretched oscillator readings.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/THB was consolidating within a defined range, with attention on support and resistance triggers for further direction. The current setup strengthens the prior outlook by highlighting robust bullish alignment and renewed external pressures, making a breakout above the ฿33.41 resistance a key level to watch for any sustained upward move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.