US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel trades down after bullish momentum fails to overcome short-term selling

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Us dollar/shekel slides 0.63% today

Highlights

USD/ILS trades above all key moving averages, maintaining a bullish technical structure across short and long horizons.
Momentum indicators including MACD, RSI, and Bull/Bear Power point to ongoing buyer dominance, but trend strength is neutral and Stochastic RSI is overbought.
Forecast range for the next five trading days is ₪3.0015 to ₪3.0567, with a 76% probability of an upward move and critical levels at ₪3.0245 and ₪3.0503.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees that the recent 0.63% slip in USD/ILS challenges technical optimism. He notes sustained vulnerability despite trading above key moving averages. Absence of supportive news flow on target dates weakens confidence, and long-term signals remain mixed with the MA-50 still lagging the MA-200. Kharitonov points to waning trend strength, especially with the ADX staying neutral and the Stochastic RSI deep in overbought territory. He warns that any break below ₪3.0245 could trigger a sharper drawdown. "Traders should avoid complacency — early bullish signals are easily reversed in the current environment."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the current setup as a strong foundation for further USD/ILS gains. He highlights the bullish structure, with prices above all major averages and momentum oscillators pointing to continued upside. Karapetjanc emphasizes that market opportunities remain rich even amid intraday volatility. While the session saw a dip, he expects buyers to defend support and drive a new breakout. "With the technical basis so robust, I believe USD/ILS is primed for another leg higher toward ₪3.0567."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that short-term sentiment remains constructive despite the day's pullback. He sees buy signals from both the RSI and MACD but flags that overbought Stochastic RSI demands nimble risk management. Volatility creates trading opportunities between ₪3.0245 and ₪3.0503. "This is a prime setup for range strategies — I would watch for potential quick reversals near support and resistance."

Bullish trend persists as moving averages and momentum diverge

USD/ILS is trading above its short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages, with the current price at ₪3.0291 compared to the MA-20 of ₪3.0148, MA-50 of ₪3.0159, and MA-200 of ₪3.0198. This configuration reflects a bullish structure across all timeframes, even as the MA-50 versus MA-200 setup still leans bearish in the longer term. The closest resistance is identified at ₪3.0503, while immediate support sits at ₪3.0245. Momentum oscillators confirm upward trend strength. Both the RSI (60.6003, "Buy") and MACD ("Buy" direction) signal continued bullish bias, but ADX at 18.2658 remains neutral, pointing to somewhat limited trend strength. CCI and Bull/Bear Power readings further highlight ongoing intraday buying, with BBP at 0.0225 and classified as "Strong Buy". However, Stochastic RSI has entered overbought territory, warning of possible exhaustion and calling for caution. After a session slip of ₪0.0191 (0.63%) and flat opening, USD/ILS now trades near the daily low, with intraday volatility measured at 0.85%.

Earlier, analysts noted that conflicting technical signals and near-term pressure increased downside risks for USD/ILS, despite a previous trend of upward momentum. The latest analysis adds a bullish technical structure and elevated breakout probabilities, making the key levels of ₪3.0503 resistance and ₪3.0245 support critical markers for potential directional moves in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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