USD/UZS resistance test at UZS11,916: Resistance levels in focus

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US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som up 0.51% today

Highlights

Uzbekistan's international reserves exceeded $72 billion as of September 1, 2026, providing substantial capacity for Som market interventions.
The central bank added about 50 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2026, the second-largest global central bank increase, which may reduce immediate demand for US dollars.
USD/UZS trades with short- and medium-term bullish momentum, with price expected to consolidate in the UZS11,798 to UZS11,916 range over the next two to three days.

Central bank reserve build boosts Som’s market resilience

Uzbekistan's Central Bank is continuing to diversify its international reserves across asset classes, currencies, and counterparties, a move aimed at optimizing liquidity management and mitigating economic risks, according to Uzdaily.uz. Data as of September 1, 2026 show the country's total reserves exceeded US$72 billion, signaling ample capacity to support the Som in currency markets if necessary. In the first half of 2026, the Central Bank also increased its gold holdings by around 50 tonnes, marking the second-largest build in volume among global central banks and potentially moderating direct demand for US dollars.

Mixed momentum as price nears highs with technical divergence

On the technical front, USD/UZS is trading above the MA-20 at UZS11,811 and the MA-50 at UZS11,795, while remaining below the MA-200 at UZS12,044. The Ichimoku Kijun lines up as immediate support at UZS11,802. Among momentum indicators, MACD maintains a buy signal and Bull/Bear Power also points to dominant buying, but Stoch RSI signals an overbought condition with a sell bias. Meanwhile, RSI reflects a mild bullish stance at 55.19, ADX is neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator supports a slight upward trajectory. The price sits near the session high with low overall volatility, while mixed signals from multiple oscillators highlight ongoing market uncertainty.

Range-bound trade likely as breakout risk edges higher

In the short term, USD/UZS is expected to consolidate within the UZS11,798 to UZS11,916 range over the next two to three trading days. The probability of an upward break is assessed as very high, with only a slim chance of a downward move. The baseline scenario calls for continued range-bound trading; a breakout above resistance may trigger renewed buying, while a move below support could lead to additional selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees prudent reserve management by Uzbekistan's Central Bank as supportive for currency stability, but notes medium-term risks remain with the USD/UZS below its long-term average. The technical picture stays mixed, with buying signals present but several momentum oscillators warning of overbought conditions. Kharitonov remains cautious, favoring a wait-and-see approach until market direction becomes clearer. "Until USD/UZS can reclaim and hold above the MA-200 at UZS12,044, I remain neutral and focused on risk management for any trades here."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite occasional short-term rallies, USD/UZS remained constrained by longer-term technical resistance and a broadly bearish backdrop. The current setup, with price action supported by strong reserves data and mixed momentum signals, suggests traders should monitor for a breakout above the prevailing range as a catalyst for the next directional move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.