USD/KRW technical analysis: Buyers defend ₩1,367 support

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US Dollar vs Won drops 0.62% today

Highlights

South Korea's central bank has begun a 24-hour won settlement pilot with four domestic banks to facilitate foreign investor access and enhance liquidity.
Recent exporter dollar selling was balanced by foreign bank buying, supporting stable supply and demand in the USD/KRW market.
USD/KRW remains under pressure with sellers in control, expected to trade between ₩1,367 and ₩1,383 over the next few sessions.

Pilot of 24-hour won settlement improves liquidity and balances flows

South Korea’s central bank has initiated a pilot of a 24-hour won settlement system with four domestic banks, a development that could improve foreign participants’ access and enhance liquidity in the won market, according to Bloomberg. This operational shift may reduce friction for international investors and create new channels for cross-border flows. Meanwhile, data from Sedaily indicated exporter selling of dollars was met by foreign bank buying, supporting balanced supply and demand in the USD/KRW market.

Bearish bias sustained as mixed momentum aligns with key supports

On the technical front, USD/KRW trades below the MA-20 at ₩1,385 and the MA-50 at ₩1,384 on the hourly chart, as well as the MA-200 at ₩1,468. The immediate resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,383, with support seen at ₩1,367. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD points to a Sell and RSI stands at 37.08, suggesting selling pressure, while CCI and Bull/Bear Power are both in oversold territory. Stoch RSI indicates a Strong Buy, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms the latest price trend direction, with ADX showing neutrality.

Downside risk prevails as price consolidates near technical thresholds

In the near term, USD/KRW is expected to consolidate within a volatility band of ₩1,367 to ₩1,383 over the next few sessions. There is a 67% probability of a push lower through support at ₩1,367, while a move higher above ₩1,383 carries a 33% probability and would be needed to suggest a short-term reversal. The baseline scenario anticipates range-bound trading unless one of these levels is breached.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the launch of South Korea’s 24-hour won settlement pilot as a strong macro and fundamental positive for the market. He notes the balance between exporter supply and foreign bank demand is keeping USD/KRW stable for now. Technicals suggest consolidation, with momentum mixed but overall bias toward a potential test of lower support. The expert remains constructive given institutional and regulatory progress. "Structural changes like this settlement pilot are likely to increase foreign participation and gradually boost confidence in the won," says Karapetjanc.

Previously it was reported that South Korea launched a pilot program for 24-hour won settlement aimed at easing access for foreign investors. With the USD/KRW pair now testing support at ₩1,367 amid the evolving infrastructure, traders should watch for a decisive break below this level as a signal for further downside potential.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.