US dollar to Indian rupee rate holds near ₹95.8572 support as state-run banks sell dollars

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US Dollar vs rupee rises 0.52% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India completed at least $10 billion in sell-buy dollar-rupee swaps to withdraw excess rupee liquidity and manage inflation risks.
State-run banks sold dollars to limit rupee losses as expectations for further US Federal Reserve rate hikes grew, while RBI officials see scope for rupee stability as the current account deficit narrows and capital flows improve.
USD/INR maintains a bullish trend across multiple timeframes with momentum indicators supporting further gains, projecting a short-term range of ₹95.7676 to ₹96.73 unless support at ₹95.8572 is breached.

Liquidity draining swaps and state bank intervention stem rupee losses

The Reserve Bank of India has recently conducted at least $10 billion in sell-buy dollar-rupee swaps with lenders, a move designed to drain excess rupee liquidity from the banking system and counter inflation risks, according to the latest reports. State-run banks also sold dollars on Wednesday to help limit rupee losses, acting as a stabilizing force as expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate hikes increased. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta has suggested that with the current account deficit narrowing and capital flows improving, there may be scope for the rupee to stabilize or even appreciate from its current levels.

Strong technical momentum as buyers dominate above support cluster

Technically, USD/INR is positioned above both the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart and trades well above the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at ₹95.8572 serves as the immediate support level, with the short-term price range expected between ₹95.7676 and ₹96.73. On the momentum side, MACD indicates a strong buy, supported by a robust ADX, while Bull/Bear Power also supports strong buyer dominance. RSI and CCI both display buying interest, contrasting with a Stoch RSI reading that shows the pair as oversold. The Awesome Oscillator currently offers no directional bias.

Upside favored as bears need breach of key support to shift trend

In the short term, USD/INR is forecast to trade within the ₹95.7676 to ₹96.73 range over the next two to three sessions, with a very high probability of further upside. Downward moves are less likely unless support near ₹95.8572 is breached, in which case a bearish scenario could emerge. For now, the pair remains range-bound, and momentum indicators favor a continuation of the prevailing trend barring a significant reversal at support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees current USD/INR price action as supported by decisive central bank intervention and constructive macro signals. He believes that recent RBI liquidity operations and improving capital flows limit near-term rupee downside, while technical momentum underpins upside potential. For Karapetjanc, sentiment remains optimistic unless support at ₹95.8572 breaks. "The RBI’s proactive stance and narrowing current account deficit give me confidence that the rupee can find stability and even strength if recent trends persist."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/INR was showing sustained bullish momentum supported by capital flows and technical strength. The latest round of RBI liquidity operations and renewed intervention by state-run banks adds a stabilizing layer, making the ₹95.8572 support level crucial for assessing whether the pair's current range-bound trend will persist or give way to further directional movement.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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