USD/IDR holds steady as Bank Indonesia interventions limit downside

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US Dollar vs Rupiah drops 0.61% today

Highlights

Bank Indonesia attributed the rupiah's recent drop to IDR 18,000 per US dollar to persistent global inflation and fiscal risks.
Authorities intervened with Non-Deliverable Forward transactions and government bond buying, and are preparing additional monetary and liquidity support measures.
USD/IDR trades below key short-term averages with negative momentum, likely to stay in a Rp17,801 to Rp17,980 sideways range over the next few days.

Bank Indonesia intervention rises as inflation and fiscal worries persist

Bank Indonesia (BI) linked the recent move in the rupiah, which temporarily reached IDR 18,000 per US dollar on September 29, 2026, to continued concerns about global inflation and fiscal stability. In response, BI intervened to stabilize the currency through Non-Deliverable Forward and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward transactions, as well as by purchasing government securities in the secondary market, according to Rri Co. BI is also preparing additional monetary, macroprudential, and payment system initiatives to support liquidity and manage foreign exchange flows, as reported by Antaranews.

Downside momentum intensifies as key support and resistance constrain moves

Technically, USD/IDR is currently trading below the MA-20 at Rp17,963 and the MA-50 at Rp17,980 on the hourly chart, while holding above the MA-200 at Rp17,517 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun level at Rp17,974 marks immediate resistance, and the nearest support is found at Rp17,801. All major momentum indicators remain negative: MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator signal continued selling, with RSI at 40.2 and CCI also generating a Sell reading. Both Stoch RSI and low volatility conditions point to consolidation near oversold territory, while Bull/Bear Power confirms the presence of dominant sellers intraday.

Downside bias prevails as short-term breakout risk builds

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/IDR is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between Rp17,801 and Rp17,980. There is a 23% probability of a move higher, counterbalanced against a 77% likelihood of a decline or sideways drift within this range. Should price break above the Rp17,974 resistance, a short-term rebound could take shape; however, sustained pressure below Rp17,801 may accelerate further downside selling.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/IDR remains under pressure as Bank Indonesia’s interventions have produced only limited and temporary effects. He sees selling momentum dominating, with macroeconomic risks still undermining investor sentiment and the rupiah unable to recover above key short-term resistance. Technical signals stay bearish and reinforce the downside risk while the long-term support is yet to be tested. "Base case remains consolidation or further losses unless USD/IDR can reclaim Rp17,974 — otherwise, downside still dominates."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/IDR was supported by persistent bullish momentum, with the broader technical structure signaling underlying buying power. Recent developments, however, highlight a shift to more cautious price action amid central bank intervention, underscoring Rp17,801 as the pivotal level to monitor for the next potential move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.