Can higher ECB reserves lift EUR/AUD?

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Euro vs Australian Dollar gains 0.5% today

Highlights

The ECB stated that the Eurosystem's net foreign currency position rose by EUR 0.1 billion to EUR 350.4 billion in the week ending September 25, 2026.
Incremental growth in central bank foreign currency reserves indicates stable Euro liquidity and may enhance perceived Euro resilience to external shocks.
EUR/AUD trades with a short- and medium-term bullish bias, with price projected in the A$1.6234 to A$1.6398 range and technicals showing strong buyer strength but overbought risks.

Reserves growth boosts euro’s stability versus Australian dollar

According to the ECB, the Eurosystem's net position in foreign currency rose by EUR 0.1 billion to EUR 350.4 billion in the week ending September 25, 2026. This incremental build in central bank foreign currency reserves signals stable access to liquidity for the Euro, which can underpin confidence in the currency's resilience against external shocks. As a result, market participants may view the Euro as comparatively robust relative to the Australian Dollar in the near term.

Bullish signals persist as buyers test technical overextension

On the technical front, EUR/AUD remains above the MA-20 at A$1.6259 and the MA-50 at A$1.623 on the H1 chart but continues to trade below the longer-term MA-200, which stands at A$1.6383. The Ichimoku Kijun provides immediate support at A$1.6251. Bullish signals dominate across momentum indicators: MACD and ADX both indicate strong buyer control, while RSI reads 66.1, suggesting continued buying pressure. Stoch RSI and CCI show overbought conditions, pointing to a rising risk of short-term exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power and a positive Awesome Oscillator reading further highlight the buyers' advantage, albeit tempered by signs of potential near-term pause.

Rangebound trade likely as upside attempts face limited risk

Over the next 2–3 trading days, EUR/AUD is expected to fluctuate within the A$1.6234 to A$1.6398 range, which reflects the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The most likely scenario sees the price consolidating within this corridor as buyer and seller momentum balances out. A clear break above resistance could open the door toward the upper end of the forecast range, while a drop below immediate support would increase the risk of downward tests toward the lower boundary; however, a strong downside move currently appears very unlikely.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that the incremental growth in Eurosystem foreign currency reserves helps support market confidence in the Euro. He sees EUR/AUD staying technically strong, with buyers maintaining near-term control, but the rally is losing some momentum. The analyst remains cautious given overbought signals and the limited size of the daily move. "Until EUR/AUD decisively clears A$1.6398 or breaks below A$1.6251, I prefer a defensive stance and expect consolidation."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/AUD exhibited bullish momentum despite overbought signals, with the Euro's longer-term outlook anchored by ECB policy stability. The latest central bank balance sheet data further reinforces the Euro's resilience, making the immediate test of support at A$1.6251 a crucial reference point for traders monitoring the risk of short-term pullbacks.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.