Euro vs Turkish Lira moves lower after technical signals point to downside risk

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Eur/try slides 0.91% today

Highlights

EUR/TRY trades below its 20-day and 50-day averages but holds above the 200-day, showing medium-term selling and long-term upward structure.
Bearish technical momentum prevails as MACD, ADX, RSI, and CCI all suggest oversold conditions and intraday downside pressure.
Expected five-day range is ₺54.7393 to ₺55.2895 with a 65% chance of further declines unless price rebounds above ₺55.2895 resistance.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes the continued bearish momentum in EUR/TRY, with the pair slipping below key moving averages. He points out a clear lack of supportive news, highlighting vulnerability to further declines. Kharitonov stresses that oversold signals are strong, but warns that such conditions alone do not guarantee a reversal. He is critical of the sideways baseline, arguing that downside risk likely remains dominant until constructive catalysts emerge. "With sellers in control and the absence of bullish news flow, I see limited reason to expect a meaningful recovery in the short term," he states.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, identifies that EUR/TRY retains its long-term bullish structure, even amid short-term pressure. He sees opportunity in the resilience above the 200-day average, suggesting underlying strength remains. Karapetjanc highlights that the market offers tactical setups if a break above ₺55.2895 occurs. "While the near-term looks shaky, I expect buyers to capitalize on oversold conditions and defend the broader uptrend," he says.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, observes EUR/TRY is consolidating near support with bearish technical signals. He believes the probability skews towards further downside unless a breakout above resistance materializes. Mehta suggests tactical traders watch for a potential contrarian bounce amid oversold readings. "If the pair holds ₺54.7393, I would watch for reversal signals as a tactical opportunity," he comments.

Sustained downside as oversold signals and sellers dominate momentum

EUR/TRY is trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (₺55.9555 and ₺55.7966) but remains above its 200-day moving average (₺53.4255), indicating medium-term selling pressure while the long-term bullish trend is still intact. The nearest resistance is at the near-term ceiling of ₺55.2378, with initial support at the near-term floor of ₺54.7393. Momentum signals point to bearish conditions as both the MACD and ADX suggest a selling climate. The RSI is at 38.2523, forecasting a sell, while the Stochastic RSI stands at 0 with an oversold indication. The CCI is deeply negative at -106.6237, reinforcing oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is negative, confirming sellers dominate intraday momentum, and the pair opened nearly flat. The price is near the daily low at ₺55.0144, slipping 0.91% from the previous close, with intraday volatility at 0.62%. The Awesome Oscillator maintains a neutral reading, aligning with prevailing downside signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/TRY was under persistent short- and medium-term bearish pressure, with limited prospects for recovery. The current analysis strengthens this view, highlighting ongoing downside momentum and underscoring that a decisive move below ₺54.7393 would amplify near-term downside risk.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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