Euro vs Turkish Lira trades down after testing Ichimoku Kijun support and slipping below 20-day average

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Euro vs Turkish lira slips 0.64% today

Highlights

EUR/TRY is trading just below its 20-day average, indicating short-term selling pressure against a positive medium-term trend.
Momentum indicators are mixed with MACD and ADX on buy, RSI and Stochastic neutral, and CCI overbought, pointing to downside correction risk.
The pair is likely to consolidate between ₺55.3752 and ₺56.1086 over the next 5 days, with a 73% probability of an upward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/TRY trading under persistent short-term selling pressure. He notes that prices remain below the 20-day average and are challenging a key Ichimoku Kijun support. Technical signals are flashing mixed momentum, with several divergences implying unstable market footing. Kharitonov is cautious due to the overbought CCI and the lack of supportive news context, which exposes the pair to potential corrective moves. "Given the current setup and absent positive catalysts, I expect downside risk to remain elevated for EUR/TRY in the near term."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, remains constructive on EUR/TRY. He highlights the ongoing bullish alignment between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Despite brief intraday weakness, the longer-term structure supports further growth, as buyers retain control. Even with newsflow absent, Karapetjanc sees robust technical momentum. "The market’s bullish structure remains intact — I expect further gains if resistance at ₺56.1086 is decisively cleared."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, takes a defensive stance on EUR/TRY. He sees multiple indicator divergences and session lows as warning signs. The lack of news flows intensifies uncertainty, especially with volatility persisting. Dele warns that sideways action may quickly turn to a sharper drop. "Without clear positive developments, traders should prepare for potential downside below ₺55.3752."

Short-term downside risk as momentum signals diverge near support

EUR/TRY is currently positioned just below its 20-day moving average at ₺55.8686, remaining above the 50-day at ₺55.6935 and well above the 200-day at ₺54.1912. This layout signals ongoing short-term downside pressure, while the medium- and long-term structure retains a bullish alignment between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Immediate support lies at the Ichimoku Kijun level of ₺55.7179, with resistance at ₺55.8089. Among momentum indicators, the MACD and ADX suggest ongoing buy momentum, but the RSI and Stochastic RSI are neutral. The CCI is in the overbought zone, hinting at some risk of downward correction. Bull/Bear Power points to buyers in control intraday, though the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. Volatility persists, and prices are trading near session lows with multiple divergences among core indicators.

Earlier, analysts noted that downside risks were building for EUR/TRY as technical pressures weighed against its long-term support structure. The current analysis adds a layer of uncertainty with mixed momentum signals, positioning the area just above ₺56.1086 as the first confirmation point for any potential bullish reversal.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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