USD/ILS holds steady as sellers dominate the short-term trend

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US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel drops 0.5%

Highlights

USD/ILS trades below short- and medium-term moving averages but holds above its longer-term average, indicating persistent selling pressure with some support intact.
Intraday momentum shows a dominant bearish trend, with several oversold indicators but no signal of an imminent reversal.
Short-term range is expected between ₪3.0485 and ₪3.0791, with a 72% likelihood of further downside and resistance near ₪3.0791.

Bearish momentum prevails with support at key average

USD/ILS is currently positioned below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, while maintaining levels above the MA-200. The immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₪3.0787, and price action finds underlying support at the MA-200. Momentum indicators reveal a broadly bearish intraday tone: MACD and ADX remain neutral, while RSI shows a Sell bias. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, suggesting downside exhaustion, though Bull/Bear Power continues to indicate selling dominance. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the ongoing downward momentum, and price is currently near today's low with subdued volatility.

Downside favored as range-bound trade expected

Over the next 2–3 sessions, USD/ILS is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band ranging from ₪3.0485 to ₪3.0791. The probability of an upward move stands at 28%, while a downside continuation is more likely at 72%. The base-case scenario anticipates continued range-bound trading in this corridor. A sustained bullish advance requires a break above near-term resistance at ₪3.0791, whereas failure of support at ₪3.0485 could trigger further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes USD/ILS is showing tactical resilience above its long-term average, despite short-term bearish momentum. He sees downside pressure dominating for now, but expects price to remain supported near the current range. The analyst notes that momentum and sentiment indicators are oversold, hinting at possible exhaustion of sellers. Karapetjanc remains constructive in his outlook, but emphasizes the need for a decisive move above ₪3.0791 to trigger any new bullish momentum. "A sustained breakout higher will require buyers to reclaim short-term resistance, but for now, I expect USD/ILS to stabilize and potentially attempt a rebound from support levels," he says.

In a recent review, analysts highlighted uncertainty for USD/ILS as mixed momentum signals and oversold conditions placed the pair in a consolidative, range-bound state. The current analysis reinforces this cautious stance, with technical signals indicating traders should closely watch for a confirmed break above resistance or a further decline below support to determine the next directional move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.