Australian Dollar vs Vietnamese Dong holds gains as bearish technical structure persists

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Australian dollar rises 0.50% today

Highlights

AUD/VND remains under pressure as the pair trades below key moving averages, indicating sustained seller control.
Momentum and oscillators are deeply oversold, with technical indicators forecasting continued downside and weak intraday support.
Expected five-day range is ₫17,964 to ₫18,281, with a 78% probability of further declines unless near-term resistance at ₫18,124 is broken.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights clear technical weakness in AUD/VND. He notes the sustained trading below all key moving averages and stresses that bearish momentum remains strong. The absence of any supporting news or fundamental drivers further undermines recovery prospects. He underlines that oversold conditions, while notable, have not triggered meaningful buying interest. "Despite some technical exhaustion, the prevailing structure signals a high risk of further depreciation for AUD/VND," Kharitonov warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees opportunities emerging as AUD/VND tests oversold levels. He believes resilient dip-buying interest can materialize near support at ₫18,028, even without fresh news. The expert views the volatility band as an active range for tactical entry setups. He thinks the technical pullback could soon entice value-seeking buyers. "With the current pressure, I expect a potential rebound if resistance at ₫18,124 is taken out — the market still offers attractive upside setups," Karapetjanc asserts.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, focuses on the pronounced downside risk but acknowledges tactical dynamics. He points to the crowded bearish trade alongside deeply oversold readings as a signal for possible contrarian plays. Mehta sees scope for short-term mean reversion trades, especially if support at ₫18,028 holds. "A tactical bounce is possible against entrenched sentiment, but downside remains exposed unless a breakout above ₫18,124 occurs," Mehta observes.

Bearish dominance persists as momentum indicators confirm oversold pressure

AUD/VND remains under pressure as the pair trades below the 20-day (₫18,360), 50-day (₫18,519), and 200-day (₫18,533) moving averages. This configuration signals seller dominance across all major timeframes, with the bearish alignment between the 50-day and 200-day averages highlighting ongoing downside risk. Immediate technical levels include resistance at ₫18,124 and support at ₫18,028. Momentum readings reinforce the bearish tone, with MACD and ADX both pointing toward continued selling. The RSI at 27.22, along with the CCI and negative Bull/Bear Power, indicate oversold conditions. The Awesome Oscillator projects further weakness, while early signals from the Stochastic RSI and HMA hint at possible near-term support despite persistent bearish momentum.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/VND was displaying short-term constructive momentum amid policy-driven strength, with consolidation expected inside established technical boundaries. The current bearish alignment across all major moving averages now signals a clear downside risk, making support at ₫18,028 the pivotal level for traders to watch in the near term.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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