USD/PLN technical analysis: Buyer support emerges at zł3.8641

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US Dollar vs Polish Zloty drops 0.53%

Highlights

The US Dollar Index reached new yearly highs near 102.50 on broad US dollar demand and euro weakness.
Resilience in the Federal Reserve's rate path continues to support the dollar against major currencies, moderating immediate US rate hike expectations.
USD/PLN trades below key moving averages with seller momentum dominating, and forecasted range stands at zł3.8641 to zł3.9086 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Dollar strength persists amid euro weakness and Fed policy divergence

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has tested new yearly highs near the 102.50 level, reflecting broad US Dollar demand as noted by Fxstreet. This strength has been supported by an independent decline in the Euro and continued resilience in the Federal Reserve's rate path relative to other major economies. The prevailing firmness in the dollar against global counterparts continues to influence US Dollar vs Polish Zloty flows, while softening expectations for immediate US rate hikes offer some offset.

Mixed momentum signals as USD/PLN hovers below short-term resistance

On the hourly chart, the pair is trading below the MA-20 at zł3.9068 and the MA-50 at zł3.9034, while remaining above the long-term MA-200 at zł3.7063. The Ichimoku Kijun stands as immediate resistance at zł3.9132. Momentum indicators are mixed: RSI is 45.013 on Sell, CCI is also on Sell, though Stoch RSI signals an Oversold condition and Bull/Bear Power shows buyer presence. MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator are Neutral, indicating a lack of strong trend momentum.

Downside risks predominate with volatility likely to persist

Over the next 2–3 trading days, USD/PLN is expected to trade in a volatility band between zł3.8641 and zł3.9086. Statistically, downward movement remains more likely, with a 63% probability for further declines versus 37% for upside. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways action within this range, while a decisive move above zł3.9132 would open recovery potential; conversely, a dip below the lower bound at zł3.8641 would reinforce downside momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees the USD/PLN pair under seller pressure despite dollar strength on the global scene. He notes that strong demand for the US Dollar, driven by a resilient Fed policy and Euro weakness, is still shaping flows. Karapetjanc believes mixed technicals and the probability bias keep downside risks modestly elevated in the short term. However, global macro factors may support a swift recovery if resistance at zł3.9132 is challenged. "If USD/PLN clears zł3.9132, I expect risk appetite to swiftly return for the bulls," the expert says.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN was supported by robust underlying bullish momentum, with technical factors driving profit-taking and consolidation. The current shift below key moving averages introduces a new dynamic, and traders should monitor a potential downside extension if the pair fails to reclaim resistance near zł3.9132 in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.