Broad US dollar weakness lifts rupee: CAD/INR resistance levels in focus

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Canadian dollar drops 0.52% vs rupee

Highlights

The Indian rupee rose by 23 paise to 96.65 per US dollar, supported by broad dollar weakness and suspected Reserve Bank of India intervention.
Reported RBI actions provided rupee liquidity and stability, refocusing investor demand and impacting cross rates such as CAD/INR.
CAD/INR trades below key moving averages and displays bearish intraday pressure, but a near-term sideways move is projected within the ₹67.3671 to ₹68.0441 range, with a 62% probability of an upward move.

Rupee resilience bolstered by RBI intervention and dollar weakness

According to Government Economictimes Indiatimes, the Indian rupee advanced by 23 paise to 96.65 per US dollar in early trade, helped by broad dollar weakness and suspected intervention from the Reserve Bank of India. The reported RBI involvement may have supported rupee liquidity and offered near-term currency stability, which in turn can influence cross rates such as CAD/INR by shifting investor demand toward the rupee. These developments created an environment where attention remained focused on the rupee’s perceived resilience within the broader forex market landscape.

Bearish lean persists as key resistance holds and momentum softens

Technically, CAD/INR is positioned below its MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly timeframe and sits under the MA-200 on the daily chart, outlining clear resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of ₹67.9895. Momentum readings are mixed: MACD and ADX remain neutral, while RSI prints 44.43 and leans mildly negative. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are now oversold, suggesting downside exhaustion may be approaching. Bull/Bear Power signals continued seller dominance intraday as it flashes a Sell reading. The close of the daily candle near the session low and with a small negative gap underlines subdued volatility and a short-term bearish technical undertone.

Sideways bias expected as volatility defines support and breakout risks

Looking ahead over the next session, the expected price range is ₹67.3671–₹68.0441, as implied by recent volatility. The probability of an upward move stands at 62% versus a 38% chance of decline, so the base expectation centers on a sideways price action within this corridor. A break above the Ichimoku Kijun resistance would point to a bullish scenario, while a move below support toward the lower edge of the projected range could open further downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees CAD/INR facing downside pressure as the rupee strengthens on suspected RBI intervention and broad dollar weakness. He notes that technical readings remain mixed, with price action subdued below clear resistance and indicators suggesting possible short-term exhaustion but no decisive reversal. The analyst maintains a cautious stance, highlighting seller dominance and the need for a catalyst to break the current range. "Until ₹67.9895 is reclaimed, I remain defensive and expect sideways to mildly negative action in CAD/INR."

Earlier, analysts noted that Canadian Dollar vs Indian Rupee (CAD/INR) maintained a broadly bearish technical structure, with sellers retaining control amid persistent downside signals. The latest technical readings and ongoing rupee strength reinforce the view that near-term risks remain tilted to the downside, making a decisive break of the Ichimoku Kijun resistance level essential for any shift toward a bullish scenario.

Source of Data: CAD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.