EUR/INR support test: Technical outlook

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Euro vs Indian Rupee down 1.09% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India opened a dollar window for state oil refiners and imposed stricter controls on foreign exchange derivatives to relieve pressure on the rupee.
The central bank enforced a 20% reserve requirement for large derivatives trades and actively defended the 97 per dollar level.
EUR/INR trades below key moving averages with downside momentum, expected to fluctuate between ₹106.7334 to ₹107.806 over the next 2 to 3 days.

RBI intervention curtails rupee volatility amid aggressive speculative control

The Reserve Bank of India implemented substantial measures to stabilize the rupee by opening a dedicated dollar window for state-owned oil refiners, tightening controls over foreign exchange derivatives through stricter transaction limits and documentation, and mandating a 20% reserve requirement for large derivatives trades. This coordinated action directly lowered speculative pressure on the rupee by shifting oil company dollar demand off the spot market and restricting rupee-linked derivative activity. In addition, the central bank reinforced its defense of the 97 per dollar level, mounting its most forceful intervention in over a decade to deter further depreciation, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold signals and strong sellers as downtrend tests key resistance

On the technical front, EUR/INR is positioned below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, and also sits below the MA-200 on the daily chart. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₹107.89. MACD maintains a sell bias, while ADX is neutral. The RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all point to oversold conditions and strong seller dominance, although Stoch RSI shows a strong buy signal, indicating a notable divergence. The Awesome Oscillator direction confirms the dominant downtrend.

Consolidation outlook as breakout risks tilt toward further declines

Over the next 2–3 trading days, EUR/INR is expected to oscillate within a band of ₹106.7334 to ₹107.806, with typical volatility for this range. There is a 23% probability of an upward breakout, but a downward move remains more likely. The baseline outlook is for continued consolidation within this corridor. A break above the Ichimoku Kijun resistance could open the way for further gains, whereas a decisive move below ₹106.7334 would likely signal additional declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the Reserve Bank of India’s decisive actions as a constructive force supporting rupee stability. He notes that the central bank’s intervention has curbed speculative pressures and sent a strong signal of institutional resolve. Technically, selling pressure on EUR/INR persists, but the fundamentals now lean less negative for the rupee. Karapetjanc believes that if the RBI maintains its stance, downward momentum may ease. "With this level of policy commitment, I expect broader market confidence in the rupee to strengthen, while EUR/INR is likely to consolidate unless key technical levels are breached."

Previously it was reported that EUR/INR had shifted toward bullish short-term momentum as RBI interventions helped stabilize the rupee against external pressures. The current article marks a clear reversal of that trend, highlighting mounting downside risks and signaling that a sustained move below ₹106.7334 could trigger further declines in the near term.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.