Eurozone reserve drop coincides with EUR/NOK weak momentum amid persistent selling

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Euro vs Norwegian Krone slides 0.56% today

Highlights

The Eurosystem's net foreign currency position fell by EUR 0.7 billion to EUR 349.6 billion in the week ending October 9, 2026.
Base money in the Eurozone contracted by EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 3,919.7 billion, indicating a slight decrease in Eurozone liquidity.
EUR/NOK trades below major moving averages with technical indicators showing strong downside momentum and a projected range of kr10.5515 to kr10.6575.

Eurozone reserves contract as declining liquidity curbs EUR funding

The net position of the Eurosystem in foreign currency decreased by EUR 0.7 billion to EUR 349.6 billion in the week ending October 9, 2026, according to the ECB. This reduction in foreign reserves reflects a marginal tightening of the Eurozone's currency position, which may limit available EUR funding in global markets. In addition, base money fell by EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 3,919.7 billion, representing a slight contraction in overall Eurozone liquidity and subtly influencing EUR/NOK transaction volumes.

Downtrend momentum confirmed as oversold signals meet technical resistance

On the technical front, EUR/NOK remains below its MA-20 at kr10.6491 and MA-50 at kr10.6703 on the H1 chart, with both levels outpaced by the daily MA-200 at kr10.9768. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at kr10.651, while the projected support level sits at kr10.5515. Momentum indicators confirm continued selling momentum: both MACD and ADX register Sell signals, RSI is low at 31.4773, and CCI is firmly in oversold territory. Stochastic RSI points to a neutral stance, but Bull/Bear Power and Awesome Oscillator confirm ongoing downside dominance.

Bearish bias persists as weak rebound chances temper outlook

Over the next two to three trading days, EUR/NOK is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between kr10.5515 and kr10.6575. The probability of a move upward remains low, while the likelihood of a further decline is high given recent downside momentum. A rebound would require a decisive break above the kr10.651 resistance, while a close below kr10.5515 could trigger renewed selling and extend the decline.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/NOK weighed down by macro and fundamental headwinds. The reduction in Eurosystem foreign reserves and a modest fall in base money both suggest tighter Eurozone liquidity. Technical momentum stays negative, with resistance at kr10.651 and downside favored as long as this level holds. He believes short-term rebounds are unlikely given the bearish sentiment and lack of institutional EUR support. "If EUR/NOK fails to reclaim kr10.651 resistance, I expect the downside pressure to persist toward kr10.5515 in the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/NOK was entrenched in a bearish trend, with technical factors continuing to limit any near-term recovery. This outlook is reinforced by the latest decline and tightening Eurozone liquidity, suggesting traders should closely monitor the kr10.5515 support as a potential trigger for further downside movement.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.