Why is USD/UZS up 0.5% today?

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Us dollar vs uzbek som rises 0.50% today

Highlights

The US Dollar to Uzbek Som exchange rate fell to 11,838.92 som on October 26, remaining below the 12,000-som level.
Bank buy and sell rates ranged from 11,805 som (highest purchase) to 11,850 som (lowest sale), with ID requirements for transactions above $100.
USD/UZS shows short- and medium-term bullish momentum above key moving averages, with a projected five-day range of UZS11,853 to UZS12,072 and a 65% likelihood of an upward move.

Official rate falls as regulatory ID rules shape forex activity

The official exchange rate for the US Dollar versus the Uzbek Som dropped to 11,838.92 som on October 26, 2026, based on Central Bank of Uzbekistan figures. This decline extended a move below the 12,000-som mark since October 22. On the same day, bank purchase and sale rates showed the highest purchase at 11,805 som and the lowest sale at 11,850 som, while regulatory rules continued to require identification for foreign exchange transactions exceeding $100.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/UZS at a critical inflection point with short-term bullish signals clashing against lingering downside risk. He notes the currency pair remains vulnerable below the 200-day moving average. Regulatory constraints and persistent volatility limit upside conviction. Divergences among key oscillators warn of mixed sentiment and possible false breakouts. "The technical setup remains fragile — traders should treat any upside as potentially short-lived until the long-term trend confirms reversal."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights a robust underlying structure in USD/UZS as both central bank policy and transaction rules support ongoing demand. He points to steady bullish momentum above key averages and the likelihood of a sustained move higher. Market participants benefit from clearly defined volatility bands and regulatory clarity. "With bullish structure intact and fundamentals aligning, I see further growth likely as the market offers multiple breakout setups this week."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes USD/UZS is testing resistance at UZS11,990 with momentum indecisive despite its recent advance. He sees scenario-based setups as the neutral RSI and mixed oscillators highlight potential for both continuation and pullback. "A tactical play could be to watch for a breakout above UZS11,990, but divergence in sentiment may also offer contrarian short opportunities if momentum stalls."

Short-term bullish momentum persists as oscillators show mixed signals

USD/UZS currently trades above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at UZS11,906 and UZS11,841, but remains just below the 200-day moving average at UZS11,990. This alignment points to short- and medium-term bullish momentum, though the longer-term trend shows bearish alignment, with near-term levels identified at UZS11,990 (ceiling) and UZS11,906 (floor), and the Ichimoku Kijun at UZS11,901 providing additional support. Momentum readings are largely positive, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing a strong buy signal and the Average Directional Index (ADX) supporting overall bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near neutral at 51.1, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, whereas the Stochastic RSI suggests an oversold state. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicates buyers dominate intraday momentum and warns of a potential overbought environment, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are both neutral. The pair advanced UZS59.86 or 0.5% today, opening with a modest upside gap of 0.1%, holding near the daily high, and showing intraday volatility at 1.10%. The overall tone reflects strength toward highs, but some divergence among oscillators hints at mixed short-term signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was expected to remain constrained within a sideways trading pattern amid mixed signals and caution regarding near-term direction. The latest data confirm ongoing uncertainty, with traders advised to watch for a decisive move above UZS11,990 or below UZS11,906 as the next signal for sustained price momentum.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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