USD/UZS holds steady amid range-bound trading and mixed momentum signals

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US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som up 0.64%

Highlights

USD/UZS trades above key moving averages and support levels on both hourly and daily charts, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.
Technical indicators show mixed signals: most momentum indicators are bullish or overbought, but some oscillators warn of a possible pullback.
USD/UZS is forecasted to stay in a UZS11,956 to UZS12,076 range over the next 2 to 3 days, with a 76% probability of further upside.

Mixed momentum signals as price exceeds key technical levels

On the technical front, USD/UZS is positioned above the MA-20 (UZS11,953) and MA-50 (UZS11,931) on the H1 chart, and also remains above the MA-200 (UZS11,989) on the daily time frame. Immediate support is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level (UZS11,959). Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: RSI stands at 64.26, suggesting buy conditions, with both CCI and Bull/Bear Power pointing to an overbought scenario, while MACD and the Awesome Oscillator support bullish momentum. Conversely, the Stochastic RSI signals a strong sell and ADX reads as neutral, indicating some divergence between trend and oscillators.

Consolidation expected amid breakout risk on volatility shifts

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/UZS is likely to remain within a typical volatility band, projected between UZS11,956 and UZS12,076. There is a 76% probability of further upside and a 24% chance of a pullback. The baseline expectation is for the asset to consolidate within this range. A breakout above UZS12,076 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a decisive move below UZS11,959 could trigger short-term weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/UZS remains technically supported above key moving averages, but no catalysts are present from the news side. He observes mixed signals between momentum and oscillators, with overbought technical readings but no strong breakout yet. The analyst expects the asset to consolidate in the current range and stays cautious about short-term upside. "Until USD/UZS breaks above UZS12,076 or firmly loses UZS11,959, I am defensive and see little conviction for aggressive positioning."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was showing short- and medium-term bullish momentum but with mixed signals from technical indicators. The latest price action above major moving averages, combined with the current overbought technical setup, suggests traders should monitor for a potential breakout above UZS12,076 or a reversal if support at UZS11,959 fails to hold in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.