AUD/JPY holds steady as consolidation takes shape below key resistance

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Australian Dollar vs Yen down 0.57% today

Highlights

The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate at 1.25%, maintaining steady interest rate differentials.
This policy continuity increased demand for the Japanese Yen and pressured the Australian Dollar vs Yen cross.
AUD/JPY trades with bearish momentum below key moving averages, with price expected to consolidate between ¥109.93 to ¥111.03 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Yen strengthens as Bank of Japan holds interest rates steady

The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its short-term interest rate at 1.25% at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review, according to Tradingpedia. This policy continuity lessens expectations of monetary easing and increases demand for the Japanese Yen as interest rate differentials remain steady. In response to the central bank's decision, the Japanese Yen saw renewed strength, which in turn put pressure on the Australian Dollar vs Yen cross.

Technical barriers weigh as negative momentum dominates

On the technical front, AUD/JPY remains below the MA-20 and MA-50 levels on the hourly chart and trades under the MA-200 on the daily. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at ¥110.84, while support resides near ¥109.93. Momentum signals are decisively negative, with MACD on Strong Sell and ADX reflecting a Sell bias. RSI sits at 46.17, just below neutral, while both CCI and Stochastic RSI remain Neutral. Bull/Bear Power reveals a minor buyer presence amid the prevailing downside impulse.

Elevated downside risk as breakout potential remains limited

Looking at the next 2–3 sessions, AUD/JPY is expected to consolidate within a range of ¥109.93 to ¥111.03, reflecting typical volatility for the pair. The probability of an upward breakout remains very low given current conditions, while downside risk is elevated. A move above ¥110.84 could signal potential for renewed upside momentum, whereas a break below ¥109.93 may accelerate selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees AUD/JPY under ongoing pressure following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hold. He notes that technical signals remain bearish, with key moving averages and oscillators pointing to further downside. The analyst cautions that unless the pair breaks above ¥110.84, the risk of additional losses stays elevated. "For now, I remain defensive and see little reason to expect a bullish reversal until resistance levels are reclaimed."

Previously it was reported that AUD/JPY was under persistent bearish pressure, with sellers dominating the technical landscape and downside risks prevailing. The latest policy decision by the Bank of Japan reinforces this trend, directing traders' attention to whether support near ¥109.93 can prevent a deeper decline.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.