Euro to Japanese yen rate sees no intervention confirmed: Can EUR/JPY maintain recent gains?

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Euro vs yen rises 0.6% today

Highlights

Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed no currency intervention occurred between September 29 and October 28, signaling reduced direct support for the yen.
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate steady at 1.25% and reaffirmed readiness to address disorderly currency movements.
EUR/JPY is trading with short- and medium-term bullish momentum and is expected to stay between ¥177.45 and ¥179.23 over the next day, with a 78% probability of further gains but overbought signals indicating risk of a near-term pullback.

Yen weakness resumes as market reverts after intervention pause

Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed there was no currency intervention in the foreign exchange market between September 29 and October 28, reducing direct support for the yen and returning the euro vs yen rate to market-driven dynamics. The previous record-scale intervention, with over ¥27 trillion spent in July and August 2026, now serves as a background rather than a present influence. The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, alongside stated readiness to act against disorderly currency moves according to Damanmarkets, helps shape expectations but has not altered the existing yield gap.

Bullish signals persist as technical boundaries favor further upside

EUR/JPY is trading above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe, while remaining below the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun marks immediate support at ¥177.61. Momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX show continued upward strength. RSI and Stochastic RSI readings are neutral, while CCI indicates overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power is positive, showing buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms this bullish momentum.

Upside probability remains high as consolidation dominates near term

In the next trading day, EUR/JPY is expected to move within a volatility band from ¥177.45 to ¥179.23. The probability of further upside is 78%, with downside risk limited to 22%. If the price stabilizes, anticipate continued consolidation in the current range. A clear break above ¥179.23 may lead to additional gains, while a move under ¥177.45 could open the way for a corrective pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/JPY supported by stable technical indicators and the absence of Japanese intervention. He notes that BOJ policy remains unchanged, which keeps the yield gap in place. Technicals point to continued buyer dominance, but the pair is not in breakout territory yet. "I remain cautious here — unless EUR/JPY clears ¥179.23, the case for further upside is limited."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/JPY was exhibiting bullish momentum, but with signals pointing to potential caution amid mixed technical readings and an overbought backdrop. The latest market action reinforces prior momentum yet introduces market-driven dynamics in the absence of direct intervention, making ¥179.23 the key level for traders to monitor for a potential breakout or shift in direction.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.