US dollar to Polish Złoty rate steady after NBP signals no rate hike: Can USD/PLN hold recent gains?

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US Dollar vs Złoty up 0.59% today

Highlights

Poland's central bank kept its policy rate at 3.75% and raised the 2027 inflation forecast to 4.2%, preserving the current yield difference.
NBP Governor indicated a hawkish stance with no December rate hike and signaled continued above-target inflation into 2027.
USD/PLN trades in a bullish structure across all timeframes, with forecasts indicating a likely range of zł3.924 to zł3.9634 in the next sessions.

Polish rate stance drives yield gap and tempers zloty demand

On November 4, 2026, Poland's central bank (NBP) maintained its main policy rate at 3.75% and raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.2%, an action that preserves the existing yield differential and heightens longer-term inflation risks, according to Intellinews. This move often translates to subdued demand for the Polish zloty as investors reconsider its appeal compared to the US dollar. NBP Governor Adam Glapinski's subsequent statements, as reported by FXStreet, indicated a hawkish policy tone while effectively ruling out any rate hike in December, pointing to a continued reliance on temporary tax relief measures and persisting inflation above target into 2027. The resulting policy environment has introduced an element of monetary caution and market hesitation, shaping near-term flows in USD/PLN.

Bullish momentum persists as neutral oscillators temper extension

Intraday readings show USD/PLN holding above the MA-20 at zł3.9291 and MA-50 at zł3.9155, as well as the long-term MA-200 at zł3.74. The Ichimoku Kijun offers immediate support at zł3.9266. Momentum indicators show MACD firmly in Buy territory and ADX indicating a positive bias, both pointing to bullish momentum. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI remain neutral, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power sits at 0.0049, suggesting marginal intraday buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and not extending confirmation to the broader trend.

Consolidation likely as high upside risk meets support limits

Over the next few sessions, typical volatility is expected in a broad band between zł3.924 and zł3.9634. With the up probability assessed as very high, the baseline case is for the pair to consolidate sideways. If USD/PLN sustains a move above the upper resistance, this could trigger a further extension of the uptrend, while a slip below immediate support at the Kijun would increase the risk of a deeper pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent policy caution from the NBP limiting the zloty's attractiveness after the central bank's rate hold and raised inflation forecast. He notes that technical momentum for USD/PLN remains buoyant, but the lack of fresh fundamental catalysts keeps upside potential contained in the short term. The analyst remains cautious, observing that broad sideways consolidation is likely unless price action breaks key support or resistance. "Until zł3.9634 is broken with conviction or Kijun support at zł3.9266 gives way, I'm staying on the sidelines."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN was exhibiting resilient bullish structure supported by stable monetary policy and technical momentum. The latest price action and ongoing policy signals reinforce this outlook, with traders advised to monitor the zł3.9634 resistance for potential upside extension or a break of zł3.9266 support as a cue for a corrective pullback.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.