Will USD/PLN preserve its narrow consolidation amid cautious NBP policy stance?

Traders Union
All News
Currency
US Dollar vs Polish Zloty up 0.61% today

Highlights

Poland's central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 3.75% as inflation slowed to 3.5%.
NBP maintained rates despite increasing its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.2%, indicating ongoing caution about future inflation.
USD/PLN continues to show bullish momentum with price at zł3.9183 and a projected range of zł3.8987 to zł3.9379 for the next several days.

Zloty support steady as NBP freezes rates amid tame inflation

Poland's central bank (NBP) held its main interest rate steady at 3.75% after October inflation slowed to 3.5%, returning within the bank's target range, according to Finimize. This move reflects a cautious stance aimed at preserving currency stability as price growth moderates, reinforcing the zloty's near-term support amid subdued volatility. Additionally, NBP's decision to maintain rates on November 4 despite raising its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.2%, as reported by Intellinews, signals vigilance around long-term price pressures but leaves the current monetary policy unchanged.

Bullish structure persists as technicals reveal mixed momentum

On the technical front, USD/PLN remains above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the active timeframe and holds well above the MA-200 on the daily chart, illustrating persistent bullish structure. The Ichimoku Kijun at zł3.9069 now acts as immediate support for price action. Among momentum signals, the MACD stands neutral while ADX retains a buy reading. RSI and CCI remain neutral, whereas Stochastic RSI is overbought, pointing to a risk of a short-term pullback. Bull/Bear Power is positive at 0.0037, giving slight preference to buyers, and the Awesome Oscillator maintains a bullish bias.

Modest upside favored as consolidation bounds outlook

Looking ahead to the next two to three trading days, USD/PLN is likely to consolidate within a volatility band of zł3.8987 to zł3.9379. There is a 56% probability of upward movement from current levels, suggesting that downside moves are somewhat less likely. The baseline scenario sees price holding inside this projected range; a breakout higher could see tests of more elevated resistance, while a break beneath the Kijun support would signal the start of a corrective decline.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the NBP’s decision to hold rates with inflation stabilizing as a constructive backdrop for the zloty. Technically, USD/PLN trades firmly above key moving averages, with bullish undertones but limited volatility. The analyst believes macro fundamentals and stable monetary policy are supporting the currency in the near term. "With central bank caution and improving price stability, I expect USD/PLN to consolidate with a moderate upward tilt in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that while USD/PLN faced short-term selling pressure, its medium- and long-term outlook remained constructive. The current technical landscape reinforces this view, with the pair’s resilience above key moving averages suggesting traders should monitor the zł3.9069 Ichimoku Kijun level as a pivotal support for any near-term directional shift.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.