Can early forint gains and dollar weakness spark further pressure on USD/HUF?

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US dollar vs forint drops 0.56% today

Highlights

The Hungarian forint gained early in the week, aided by shifting investor flows and weakness in the US dollar against the euro.
Over the past week, the forint traded higher versus both the US dollar and the euro, indicating relative strength among major currencies.
USD/HUF trades below short- and medium-term moving averages, bearish indicators prevail, and price is expected in a Ft321.8276 to Ft325.062 range with high downside probability.

Forint gains as shifting flows and dollar weakness drive session support

The Hungarian forint began the week with early gains, reflecting shifting investor flows and position adjustments that provided short-lived support to the currency during Monday's session. US dollar weakness against the euro acted as an indirect driver, supporting the forint and assisting its recovery from previous lows against the euro. Over the past week, the forint demonstrated relative strength by trading higher against both the US dollar and the euro, underscoring its broad positioning among major currencies.

Bearish momentum signals as price tests support above MA-200

Technically, USD/HUF is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, while remaining above the MA-200, signaling short-term weakness but longer-term support. The immediate resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun level at Ft325.2342, with the price currently near session lows. Momentum indicators support a bearish outlook: MACD and ADX are both in Sell mode, the Awesome Oscillator also shows negative momentum, and Bull/Bear Power remains firmly negative. While RSI and Stochastic RSI are neutral, CCI has reached the oversold zone, which may allow for a limited technical rebound, but overall selling pressure is dominant in the current environment.

Downside risks predominate with range-bound outlook pending breakout

In the short term, USD/HUF is expected to remain within a Ft321.8276 to Ft325.062 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a sustained upward move is low, with downside risks more likely to materialize unless there is a decisive break above immediate resistance. The baseline scenario anticipates prices oscillating inside this corridor, with a bearish extension likely if support fails, while a bullish scenario would only emerge if the pair moves above the Ichimoku Kijun resistance.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the Hungarian forint as holding its ground thanks to recent US dollar weakness and supportive macro sentiment. He notes that current price action reflects healthy investor flows and relative outperformance against major currencies, even as technicals warn of near-term fragility. Overall, risk remains tilted to the downside unless the Ft325.2342 resistance is cleared. "With momentum indicators still negative, tactical focus should stay on support holding above Ft321.8276 for any short-term stability in USD/HUF."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/HUF was exhibiting sustained bullish momentum, supported by favorable technical signals and a constructive trend backdrop. The latest technical shift toward short-term weakness and increased downside risk suggests traders should closely monitor the Ft321.8276 support level for signs of further bearish extension or a potential rebound.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.