Will USD/ILS hold steady amid ongoing seller dominance and flat price action?

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US Dollar vs shekel drops 0.51% today

Highlights

The Israeli shekel weakened 2.2% against the US dollar during the week, with USD/ILS rising from 3.118 to 3.1853.
Market positioning and capital flows over the week are shaping near-term expectations for USD/ILS currency risk and liquidity.
USD/ILS trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with momentum indicators negative, projecting a range of ₪3.1373 to ₪3.1733 with greater likelihood of further short-term declines.

Shekel weakness extends as capital flows shift to US dollar

According to Israelinvestmentreport Substack, the Israeli shekel ended the week on November 8 about 2.2% weaker against the US dollar, with USD/ILS rising from 3.118 to 3.1853. This shift signals greater demand for US dollars or declining sentiment toward the shekel, influencing the currency pair through capital flows and positioning. Such week-ending adjustments can have a lingering effect on near-term USD/ILS trading by shaping market expectations around currency risk and liquidity.

Bearish momentum persists as price tests oversold support

On the hourly chart, USD/ILS is positioned below both the MA-20 and MA-50, while staying above the MA-200. The immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₪3.1729. MACD and ADX both indicate a sell bias with negative momentum, and Bull/Bear Power confirms ongoing seller dominance. RSI remains neutral, whereas Stoch RSI and CCI readings are in oversold territory, highlighting a divergence as price tests recent lows and suggesting conditions may be supportive of a near-term rebound.

Downside risk dominates as volatility bands remain intact

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/ILS is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band between ₪3.1373 and ₪3.1733. The probability of an upward move currently stands at 27%, implying a higher chance of continued downside in the short term. A sustained bearish scenario could develop if the pair drops below the identified support, while a bullish outcome depends on a successful break above immediate resistance levels. The baseline expectation, however, is for continued sideways price movement amid moderate volatility.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent 2.2% slide in the shekel as a sign of shifting sentiment in favor of the US dollar. He notes that downside momentum persists, but technical signals now point to possible stabilization. Karapetjanc believes further declines are possible without a move above resistance. "If sentiment turns and USD/ILS breaks ₪3.1729, traders should be alert for a short-term rebound as oversold conditions unwind."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/ILS maintained a generally bullish structure but faced caution due to mixed momentum signals and correction risks. The current shift below short- and medium-term moving averages signals a change in dynamics, making sustained support above the recent lows a critical level to monitor for potential downside follow-through.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.