USD/KRW trades flat as sellers limit upside below ₩1,343 resistance

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US Dollar vs won down 0.53% today

Highlights

South Korea's budget office advises lowering the assumed USD/KRW exchange rate for the 2025 national budget to better match recent market levels.
This adjustment removes the prior assumption of 1,490 won per US dollar, reducing projected structural depreciation risks for the won.
USD/KRW trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum, projected to remain between 1,330 to 1,343 in the next 2 to 3 days.

Reduced won depreciation risk as budget office revises exchange assumptions

South Korea's budget office has urged the government to revise the assumed exchange rate for next year's national budget from 1,490 won per US dollar, a level 140 won above current market rates, according to Sedaily. This request signals a move toward more realistic fiscal assumptions and reflects policymakers' expectations that the US Dollar vs South Korean Won may remain at lower levels than previously projected. The adjustment reduces perceived risk of further structural depreciation in the won and supports a steadier market backdrop.

Bearish signals dominate as usd/krw holds under resistance levels

On the H1 chart, USD/KRW trades below the MA-20 at ₩1,344 and the MA-50 at ₩1,352, with the daily MA-200 at a higher level of ₩1,441. The Ichimoku Kijun currently marks immediate resistance at ₩1,347. MACD is producing a strong sell signal, and ADX indicates a bearish environment, while Bull/Bear Power is negative at –0.17. Momentum oscillators remain neutral, with RSI at 40.05, Stoch RSI at 67.45, and CCI at –75.84. The Awesome Oscillator displays neutrality, highlighting the absence of a decisive countertrend push.

Sideways trading expected amid low breakout risk near support

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the most probable outcome is for USD/KRW to trade sideways within a range between ₩1,330 and ₩1,343, representing the expected volatility band relative to current levels. While a sustained breakout above ₩1,347 could attract fresh buying and open the way for a higher move, the probability of an upward scenario is assessed as very low. Should the price breach the ₩1,330 level, additional downside risk would be triggered and selling momentum is likely to intensify.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the South Korean budget office’s move to revise FX assumptions signals increasing confidence in the won’s stability. He sees the government’s recalibration as a positive for market sentiment, reducing structural depreciation risk. Technicals remain bearish in the near term, but the overall macro backdrop is stabilizing. Constructively, he expects USD/KRW to consolidate in a tight range barring any big surprises. "If policymakers continue supporting realistic fiscal assumptions, I see limited downside for the won and a favorable environment for risk sentiment near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW was likely to remain rangebound due to mixed technical indicators and limited directional momentum. The latest policy signals and fresh technical data reinforce the prevailing neutral scenario, with traders advised to monitor the ₩1,330 support level for signs of renewed downside acceleration.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.