Euro to Indian rupee rate rallies as foreign investment surges: EUR/INR remains under pressure

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Euro vs rupee slides 0.52% today

Highlights

The Indian rupee reached its strongest level since April against the US dollar following nearly $6 billion in foreign equity inflows during November.
Recent declines in crude oil prices and India ranking among Asia's top-performing currencies further supported rupee strength against major pairs.
EUR/INR trades below key moving averages with momentum indicators bearish and price expected in the ₹103.6442 to ₹104.6858 range, though oversold signals suggest possible short-term rebound risk.

Foreign inflows and oil slide bolster rupee, pressuring euro cross

According to Economictimes Indiatimes, the Indian rupee achieved its strongest level since April against the US dollar on Wednesday, buoyed by nearly $6 billion in foreign investments in local stocks during November. This robust capital inflow into Indian markets has increased demand for the rupee, exerting additional downward pressure on the EUR/INR exchange rate by strengthening the INR against major counterparts. Additionally, recent declines in crude oil prices and India’s position among Asia's top-performing currencies have further supported INR strength, as highlighted by Economictimes Indiatimes.

Bearish momentum confirmed as technicals signal sell bias near support

Technically, EUR/INR trades below the MA-20 at ₹104.6231, the MA-50 at ₹104.9091, and the MA-200 at ₹109.329. The Ichimoku Kijun serves as immediate resistance at ₹104.7839. Among momentum indicators, MACD and ADX point to a sell bias, while RSI holds in neutral. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, flagging short-term selling exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power remains negative at -0.174 and the Awesome Oscillator confirms a bearish tilt, though oversold oscillator signals hint at possible rebound attempts.

Downside risks dominate as rangebound pattern limits rebound odds

In the short term, EUR/INR is likely to stay rangebound between ₹103.6442 and ₹104.6858, reflecting typical volatility for the upcoming 2–3 sessions. The probability of a move higher is deemed very low, while the downside risk is considerable. A break above ₹104.7839 would signal a bullish reversal, whereas a drop below ₹103.6442 would confirm further downside traction.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent strength in the Indian rupee driven by robust foreign investment and macro tailwinds. He notes that inflows approaching $6 billion and declining crude prices are deeply supportive for INR. Technical signals remain bearish for EUR/INR, with limited rebound prospects in the very near term. Karapetjanc believes downside risk prevails unless major resistance is reclaimed. "At this stage, sustained capital inflow and improving macro dynamics make further INR gains the base case for EUR/INR."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/INR maintained a bearish technical and macroeconomic structure, with downside risks prevailing in the absence of a decisive reversal. The latest data on sustained foreign inflows and Indian rupee resilience against major currencies further reinforces this view, making the ₹103.6442 support a critical level to monitor for signs of potential downside acceleration.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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