Will AUD/INR hold above ₹63.629 support amid strong rupee-driven equity inflows?

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Australian Dollar vs Indian Rupee down 0.5%

Highlights

The Indian rupee closed at 93.69 against the US dollar, its highest level since April, supported by nearly $6 billion in foreign equity inflows during November.
Stronger INR liquidity contributed to broad currency gains, directly impacting the performance of pairs such as AUD/INR.
AUD/INR trades below key moving averages with technicals indicating bearish pressure and a projected range of ₹63.629 to ₹64.6004 for the next 2 to 3 days.

Foreign inflows strengthen rupee as investor demand lifts INR gains

The Indian rupee reached its strongest level against the US dollar since April, closing at 93.69 on Wednesday, according to Economictimes Indiatimes. This move was driven by nearly $6 billion in foreign inflows into Indian equities during November, as overseas investor participation increased demand for rupees. The surge in INR liquidity has translated into broad currency gains and directly affected the performance of currency pairs such as AUD/INR.

Technical barriers cap AUD/INR as momentum indicators signal selling

On the technical side, AUD/INR is currently positioned below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, with price also trading well under the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The immediate resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₹64.3807. Among momentum indicators, MACD points to a strong sell signal and ADX is aligned with a sell stance, while RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI remain neutral. Bull/Bear Power is just marginally in positive territory at 0.0103, showing minimal buyer influence, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. For the session, AUD/INR is lingering near its session low at ₹64.1147 with volatility low and recent price action confined within a narrow band.

Downside risk elevated as reversal chances remain subdued

Over the next two to three trading days, AUD/INR is expected to remain within a range of ₹63.629 to ₹64.6004, reflecting typical volatility seen in the pair. The probability of an upward reversal is very low, while the likelihood of further downside movement is rated very high, making upward bounces from here less probable. Baseline scenario suggests AUD/INR continues to oscillate within this projected range. If the price breaks above the Ichimoku Kijun at ₹64.3807, it could trigger further upside, while a drop below the lower bound would point to a new phase of weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees AUD/INR as lacking positive momentum, with the pair firmly below key moving averages and technicals showing no buyer conviction. He notes that the recent surge in foreign inflows into Indian equities continues to strengthen INR, compounding downward pressure on the pair. Upside is limited unless resistance at ₹64.3807 is reclaimed and the technical backdrop improves. "Until AUD/INR breaks convincingly above the Ichimoku Kijun, I remain cautious — the path of least resistance is still lower."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/INR faced persistent downside pressure, with technical momentum and strong rupee fundamentals putting sellers firmly in control. The current analysis reinforces this view and highlights that a clear breakdown below ₹63.629 could open the way for renewed weakness in the pair’s outlook.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.