AUD/JPY holds steady near ¥108.28 amid oversold CCI and ongoing seller pressure

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Australian Dollar vs Yen down 0.49% today

Highlights

The Japanese Yen weakened to 160 per US Dollar for the third time in 2026 as authorities issued warnings about possible intervention.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi confirmed ongoing coordination with US officials to promote stable foreign exchange markets and calm near-term volatility.
AUD/JPY trades in a sustained downtrend with key technical indicators oversold; price is expected to range from ¥107.74 to ¥108.82 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Intervention warnings and US-Japan coordination drive market sentiment shift

The Japanese Yen recently weakened to around 160 per US Dollar for the third time in 2026, prompting Japanese authorities to issue intervention warnings, according to FXStreet. Official signals of potential market intervention heighten uncertainty for the Yen and can impact demand for currency pairs such as AUD/JPY. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also confirmed close coordination with US financial authorities to promote orderly foreign exchange markets, stabilizing near-term market sentiment.

Persistent sell signals confirmed by broad oversold oscillator readings

AUD/JPY is positioned below the MA-20 at ¥108.6, MA-50 at ¥108.89, and MA-200 at ¥112.2. The daily Ichimoku Kijun marks resistance at ¥108.57. Among momentum signals, MACD and ADX both indicate a prevailing sell bias. RSI is deeply oversold at 28.23, while Stochastic RSI registers a minimum value of 0 and CCI stands at -176.5, reinforcing the presence of oversold conditions across multiple oscillators. Bull/Bear Power is negative at -0.21, reflecting intraday seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator also signals continuation of the downward momentum.

Sideways trade favored amid volatility and boundary breakout risks

Over the next two to three trading days, AUD/JPY is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band from ¥107.74 to ¥108.82. The baseline scenario favors sideways movement inside this range under current market conditions. A break above ¥108.57 could see price attempting to test the upper boundary, while a drop below ¥107.74 would likely intensify downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that AUD/JPY remains technically weak and oversold, with price below all major moving averages and bearish momentum indicators prevailing. He sees uncertainty elevated by Japanese authorities' warnings of possible intervention as the Yen trades near historic lows; this weighs on sentiment and limits conviction in either direction. Kharitonov believes the pair is likely to drift sideways within ¥107.74–¥108.82 in the short term, and that only clear breaks of these levels would alter the outlook. "I remain cautious here — as long as AUD/JPY stays capped below ¥108.57 and the newsflow is dominated by intervention risk, I prefer to wait for confirmation before considering directional trades."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was entrenched in a persistent bearish trend, with sustained downside momentum dominating price action. The current environment reinforces this view, as broad-based yen volatility and ongoing technical weakness suggest traders should monitor for renewed pressure toward the lower end of the projected range.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.