UK manufacturing output outlook stabilises as October orders weaken

UK manufacturing output outlook stabilises as October orders weaken
UK manufacturing steadies

Britain's manufacturing sector is expected to steady over the next three months after an extended period of flat or declining production since mid-2022. The improved near-term output outlook comes even as orders fall in October and price expectations rise, pointing to continued pressure on factory profitability and investment.

Highlights

  • CBI's quarterly gauge for UK manufacturing output outlook improves to -1 in October from -30 in July, signalling near-stabilisation.
  • CBI monthly order books balance drops to -32 in October from -9 in September, highlighting continued weak demand despite less negative output expectations.
  • Quarterly expected domestic prices rise to +24 from +11, while labour shortages, high costs, and weak confidence constrain investment and profitability.

CBI survey signals steadier production outlook

As reported by Reuters, citing the Confederation of British Industry, its quarterly gauge for manufacturing output over the next three months improves to -1 from -30 in July, suggesting production conditions are close to stabilising after a prolonged weak spell.

The October survey also shows the CBI's monthly order books balance falling to -32 from -9 in September, indicating demand remains under pressure even as expectations for output become less negative. Official data, however, has shown solid growth in Britain's manufacturing output this year.

Costs, labour shortages and confidence remain key risks

CBI senior economist Cameron Martin says significant challenges remain for manufacturers despite the steadier production outlook. He says orders are still falling, labour shortages are picking up, and stubbornly high costs are squeezing profitability.

Martin adds that deteriorating competitiveness and fragile business confidence continue to weigh on investment decisions. The survey also shows the quarterly measure of expected domestic prices rising to +24 from +11, underlining the inflation pressure still facing the sector.

In our earlier coverage of Chancellor John Healey’s pre-Budget stance, we highlighted his commitment to a deficit-reduction strategy ahead of the October 28 fiscal statement, even as the government aims to support growth. We also noted that UK GDP edged up 0.1% in August, suggesting modest resilience but leaving the economy sensitive to political and cost pressures facing businesses.

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