IMF, OECD warn AI could widen gap between rich and poor countries

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IMF, OECD warn on AI gap

Highlights

The IMF estimates successful AI adoption could boost annual global growth by up to 0.5% in the medium term, despite weak evidence for overall productivity gains so far.
The OECD projects AI could add 0.4% to 1.2% to annual productivity growth among members, but chief economist Stefano Scarpetta notes workplace adoption remains limited and lags behind consumer use.
The IMF warns 40% of global jobs are exposed to AI, with younger and entry-level workers at higher risk and developing economies facing greater challenges due to weaker infrastructure and training.

Growth potential and adoption barriers

As reported by Reuters, officials from the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development say artificial intelligence could lift output, but many economies still face major obstacles to broad adoption.

Era Dabla-Norris, deputy director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, says the key issue for many developing economies is whether they can adopt and spread AI effectively. The IMF estimates that successful AI adoption could add as much as 0.5% to annual global growth over the medium term, although Dabla-Norris says the evidence so far on overall productivity gains is much weaker.

The OECD estimates AI could add between 0.4% and 1.2% to annual productivity growth across its member countries. But OECD chief economist Stefano Scarpetta says workplace adoption is lagging consumer use, with only limited deployment in core business functions and a wide gap between exposure to AI and actual use.

Risks for workers and smaller economies

The warning comes as companies pour money into chips and AI infrastructure, a trend that is helping underpin market gains while also raising concerns about whether returns will justify large spending commitments as borrowing costs rise.

The IMF estimates about 40% of jobs worldwide could be exposed to AI, at a time when reports of mass layoffs are gathering pace. Dabla-Norris says younger and entry-level workers could be especially vulnerable if AI replaces tasks that have traditionally helped employees build experience early in their careers.

The findings point to a broader divide in the global economy, where countries and companies with stronger power supply, digital infrastructure and workforce training are better placed to capture AI-driven gains. Economies that lack those foundations risk seeing the technology reinforce existing income and productivity gaps rather than narrow them.

In our earlier article on how AI is reshaping corporate competitiveness, we explained that the spread of AI is raising performance standards and making “average” execution a less viable strategy for businesses. We noted that companies that invest in AI, skills, and decision-making upgrades can improve productivity and strengthen their market position, while those that fail to adapt face a growing risk of falling behind.

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