Between record and bubble: How Anthropic is approaching its IPO

​Anthropic is preparing for an IPO that could become one of the largest in history. Investors have high expectations for the company behind Claude. But beneath its rapid success lie risks that could change how the market views the entire AI industry.

From millions to billions

On October 26, Anthropic filed its IPO registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company plans to list its shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol ANT. Preliminary estimates suggest that Anthropic could be valued at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, although the final terms of the offering have yet to be determined.

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The company's financial results help explain these high expectations. In 2024, Anthropic generated just $386 million in revenue, which rose to $4.6 billion in 2025 and reached $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026. That represents an almost 14-fold increase from a year earlier. More than 11,900 enterprise customers spend at least $100,000 annually on the company's products, while approximately 250 spend more than $10 million each. One of the main growth drivers has been Claude Code, a tool businesses use to write software code and automate development.

However, this rapid growth has been accompanied by enormous losses. In the first half of 2026, Anthropic reported a net loss of $80.7 billion, of which $72.4 billion came from noncash accounting adjustments, primarily related to the revaluation of financial liabilities. Meanwhile, its operating loss for the six-month period narrowed to $693 million from $2.1 billion a year earlier.

Despite improving financial performance, Anthropic's expected valuation remains extremely high. At $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, the company's valuation would be approximately 33 to 43 times its annualized revenue based on second-quarter 2026 results. This is significantly higher than the comparable valuation multiples of technology giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet.

The price of leadership

Developing advanced AI models requires enormous computing capacity. According to its IPO filing, Anthropic has entered into long-term commitments worth hundreds of billions of dollars for cloud services and infrastructure. Specifically, the company plans to spend at least $110 billion on Amazon services through 2036, $115 billion on Google infrastructure, and another $45 billion on Microsoft computing capacity through 2033.

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In addition, Anthropic has signed a $120 billion agreement with SpaceX running through 2029. Its total commitments to technology partners exceed $500 billion. These are not one-time expenses but multiyear contracts with terms that depend on the availability of computing capacity and other factors.

A distinctive feature of Anthropic's business is its close relationship with major technology corporations. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft not only provide infrastructure to the company but also invest in its development. In addition, approximately 48% of Anthropic's revenue in the first half of 2026 came through its partners' cloud platforms, which sell access to Claude to their own customers.

On the brink of another bubble

Anthropic's move toward the public market comes amid growing doubts about the outlook for the AI industry. In October, shares of data center operators CoreWeave and Nebius lost more than 30% of their value. Australia's Firmus and Solidigm, a subsidiary of SK Hynix, withdrew their planned IPOs. Investors are increasingly concerned about whether technology companies will be able to recoup their enormous infrastructure investments.

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Jai Das, a partner at venture capital firm Sapphire Ventures, compared the current enthusiasm to the telecommunications boom of the late 1990s. At the time, companies invested heavily in laying fiber-optic networks, betting on rapid growth in internet traffic. The infrastructure eventually proved useful, but many investors lost money, and some companies went bankrupt.

Another concern is Anthropic's own slowing growth. According to The Information, the company's revenue increased by 45% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026, compared with growth of more than 140% in the second quarter. At the same time, competition is intensifying from OpenAI, Google, and developers of cheaper AI models, potentially forcing Anthropic to lower its prices.

The outcome of the offering could also affect competitors' plans. OpenAI is preparing for an IPO of its own, expected in 2027. Brad Bernstein, managing partner at FTV Capital, warned that weak stock market performance by Anthropic could trigger a reassessment of other AI companies' valuations. Meanwhile, SpaceX, which raised tens of billions of dollars in its record-breaking IPO in June, demonstrates that the size of an offering does not guarantee subsequent share price gains: by late October, its stock was trading slightly below its opening price on the first day.

Success or disappointment

Anthropic's rapid revenue growth confirms strong demand for its products but does not yet guarantee sustainable profitability. If demand from enterprise customers weakens or competition drives prices lower, multiyear commitments to computing infrastructure providers could become a serious financial burden.

Even a successful IPO would not guarantee further gains in Anthropic's share price. A valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion already assumes that the company will maintain high growth rates for years to come. Even a modest shortfall relative to expectations could disappoint investors and prompt a reassessment of other AI companies' valuations, including OpenAI.