Philippine peso hits record low as currency weakens past 64 per U.S. dollar

Traders Union
All News
Economic Data
Philippine peso record low past 64

Highlights

Philippine peso closes at a record low of 64.17 per U.S. dollar, marking its 38th all-time low in 2025 and a year-to-date 8.38% decline.
Continued currency weakness driven by domestic macroeconomic risks, elevated crude oil prices, and expectations of a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve stance.
October–November inflation may approach 8% and Q3 GDP growth could slip below 3%, maintaining pressure on the peso and prompting calls for stronger policy coordination.

Record slide driven by oil and Fed outlook

As reported by BusinessWorld Online, the peso closes at 64.17 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, weakening by 22 centavos from 63.95 on Monday, based on Bankers Association of the Philippines data. The move marks the local currency’s 38th record low this year, its ninth in October, and its seventh straight trading day at an all-time low.

Year to date, the peso is down 5.38 pesos, or 8.38%, from its 58.79 finish on Dec. 29, 2025. The currency opens the session flat, reaches an intraday high of 63.90, and falls as far as 64.20, surpassing the previous intraday record low of 63.95. Dollar volume traded rises to $1.726 billion from $1.649 billion a day earlier.

Traders say the peso’s continued depreciation reflects a mix of domestic macroeconomic concerns, elevated crude oil prices, and expected hawkishness from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week. One trader identifies 64.40 as the next resistance level, while another says the next psychological mark stands at 65 per U.S. dollar.

China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez says the peso’s recovery depends on how quickly the Philippine economy recovers amid heightened uncertainty. She says the currency’s fall despite the BSP’s surprise 50-basis-point rate hike reinforces the view that tighter policy alone may not be enough to reverse depreciation.

Inflation risks cloud recovery prospects

Velasquez says seasonal support from remittances in November and December is being offset by uncertainty over the economic recovery. She expects the peso to recover modestly to around the 63 level by yearend if it remains near 64 per U.S. dollar, although she warns that markets may stay volatile in early November as investors assess incoming data and the recovery outlook.

She adds that pressure on the currency is likely to persist, with October and November inflation potentially nearing 8% and third-quarter gross domestic product growth possibly falling below 3%. Safe-haven demand for the dollar amid elevated geopolitical tensions also keeps near-term pressure on the local unit.

Separately, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. meets with BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. and economic managers to discuss the implications of the central bank’s October policy decision, Malacañang says. The Presidential Communications Office says stronger coordination across government agencies is needed to protect purchasing power, manage inflation, and sustain gross domestic product growth, while the government continues measures to address El Niño effects and speed up public spending.

Our earlier coverage of the debate over the Fed’s public messaging explained how mixed signals from officials, alongside a firmer inflation reading, kept markets split on whether another rate hike was coming. We noted that shifting communication from key policymakers can quickly reset expectations and drive volatility across rates and the U.S. dollar—factors that also feed into pressure on emerging-market currencies.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.