Strong domestic demand keeps pressure on the U.S. trade balance in September, even as the overall deficit edges lower. Record imports underscore the persistence of consumer and business spending, while trade remains a drag on third-quarter economic growth.
Highlights
- U.S. trade deficit narrows 0.7% to $105.0 billion in September, outperforming economist forecasts of a $108.0 billion gap.
- Imports rise 1.2% to a record $426.6 billion and exports grow 1.9% to $321.5 billion as consumer spending and AI-driven investment boost demand.
- Imports subtract 2.64 percentage points from Q3 GDP growth, yet the economy expands at a 3.4% annualized rate in the July-September quarter.
September trade figures and demand trends
As reported by Reuters, citing the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, the U.S. trade deficit narrows 0.7% to $105.0 billion in September, compared with economists' forecasts for a $108.0 billion gap.Imports increase 1.2% to a record $426.6 billion in September, with goods imports rising 1.3% to an all-time high of $346.9 billion. Exports advance 1.9% to $321.5 billion, while goods exports climb 2.5% to $211.0 billion.
The large trade shortfall persists despite President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs. Robust consumer spending and strong investment tied to artificial intelligence continue to support domestic demand and lift purchases from abroad.
GDP impact and broader economic backdrop
Trade does not contribute to GDP growth for a fourth straight quarter, extending a drag on the broader economy. The government estimates last week that imports subtract 2.64 percentage points from gross domestic product growth in the third quarter, the biggest hit since the first quarter of 2025, when businesses front-load orders after Trump's sweeping tariffs.The economy grows at a 3.4% annualized rate in the July-September quarter, according to the government's advance GDP estimate released last week. The September trade data suggest that resilient domestic demand remains a key support for growth, even as it widens reliance on imports.
India’s September merchandise trade deficit widened as imports rose faster than exports, leaving the gap near $30.2 billion and slightly below expectations. In our earlier article, we noted that elevated energy costs—amplified by geopolitical tensions—were a key driver of the higher import bill, while India pushed to diversify export markets through new and pending trade agreements.
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