U.S. jobless claims hold near multi-decade lows as layoffs stay subdued

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U.S. jobless claims remain low

Highlights

Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 189,000 for the week ended October 31, beating expectations and matching July's multi-decade low.
Job openings rose to 1.06 per unemployed person in September, indicating a tighter labor market compared to 1.02 in August.
Employers announced plans to hire 444,692 workers in October, up 57% from October 2025, with most positions seasonal rather than permanent.

Weekly claims data points to firm labor conditions

As reported by Reuters, citing the U.S. Labor Department, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fall by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 189,000 in the week ended October 31. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 196,000 claims for the latest week.

The reading matches the 189,000 level reached in mid-July, the lowest since 1969. Claims have stayed mostly below 200,000 since mid-September, underscoring how low layoffs remain amid strong domestic demand and profit growth.

The government also reports this week that there are 1.06 job openings for every unemployed person in September, up from 1.02 in August. Some economists see that as a sign the labor market is starting to tighten, while others argue the low level of claims reflects a smaller labor force amid an immigration crackdown rather than a broad reduction in job cuts.

Seasonal hiring rises while permanent hiring remains cautious

A separate report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas shows U.S.-based employers announce 43,994 job cuts in October, up 2% from September but down 71% from October 2025. Despite the monthly increase, planned layoffs are the lowest for any October since 2023.

Employers also announce plans to hire 444,692 workers in October, a 57% jump from October 2025 and the highest level for any October since 2009. Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, says employers are holding on to workers ahead of the holidays while much of the announced hiring is short-term seasonal work rather than permanent hiring.

The Labor Department's report shows continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, increase by 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.718 million in the week ended October 24. The data does not affect the government's October employment report due on Friday because it falls outside the survey period, while a Reuters survey of economists points to nonfarm payroll growth of 65,000 jobs and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2.

Research on early-career job-hopping highlights that switching jobs is a major driver of wage growth and can improve long-term employment matches. Our earlier article noted that multiple studies, including a large historical analysis of young U.S. workers, found a substantial share of lifetime earnings gains comes from changing jobs in the first years of a career—challenging the cultural stigma around short tenures.

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