Alphabet stock edges higher as market assesses equity stake in SpaceX $800B revaluation

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GOOGL investors weigh SpaceX reevaluation

Highlights

Alphabet stock faces sustained sell pressure after EMA crossover signals deeper downside bias
SpaceX valuation near $800B may drive upside surprise in Alphabet’s next earnings report
Market weighs possible income boost from Alphabet’s revaluation of private SpaceX equity stake

The decline accelerated last week after Oracle’s disappointing earnings dragged broader tech stocks lower and renewed concerns over the longevity of the AI hype cycle. A separate weight came from EU regulators reviving antitrust scrutiny, targeting dominant players including Alphabet.

Alphabet price dynamic (Nov - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart show a deepening bearish structure. For the first time since mid-November, GOOGL price action is positioned well below its 20, 50, and 100 EMAs. This confirms sustained selling pressure in recent sessions. More importantly, last week saw the 20 EMA cross below the 50 EMA, a textbook bearish crossover that suggests further downward momentum unless a major reversal catalyst emerges. Traders are now watching whether today’s modest gain is a short-covering bounce or a genuine attempt to reclaim lost technical ground.

Market yet to price in impact of Alphabet’s rising private equity valuation

Despite these short-term technical weaknesses, potential medium-term support could come from valuation adjustments in Alphabet’s private investment portfolio. Alphabet has been a longtime investor in SpaceX since its 2015 funding round, and this holding continues to influence its financial statements in subtle but material ways. In April, Alphabet reported an $8 billion unrealized gain attributed to a private company widely assumed to be SpaceX. That disclosure alone was enough to lift its March-quarter profit above consensus expectations.

SpaceX’s latest internal tender priced shares at $421, assigning the firm a new valuation near $800 billion. This marks a sharp upward shift from prior secondary market transactions. The implication is clear: if Alphabet chooses to update the valuation of its SpaceX stake in the current quarter, another wave of paper gains could inflate net income once again. Such an adjustment would support the earnings outlook and possibly reframe investor sentiment around GOOGL in the weeks ahead.

So far, the market has not priced in any fresh upside from this revaluation prospect, focusing instead on short-term headwinds. However, the size of Alphabet’s non-marketable holdings and their impact on reported earnings could soon regain investor attention. Any mention of SpaceX-driven gains in Alphabet’s next earnings update would likely serve as a tailwind for its stock price trajectory.

In recent analysis, we discussed how GOOGL stock fell 3.6% on Thursday, erasing gains from its Fed-driven rally. AI sentiment turned negative after Oracle’s earnings miss, while EU probes and the Waymo recall added pressure.

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