Alphabet stock struggles below 20-day EMA despite Waymo valuation and BMO bullish outlook
GOOGL stock is trading near $307.7 in Wednesday’s premarket session, reflecting a slight 0.35% gain from Tuesday’s close. However, this modest uptick follows a broader downtrend as the stock closed lower for a fourth consecutive session. Tuesday’s decline saw the stock extend to a three-week low of $302.6 before recovering to end the session at $306.6. The close marked a 0.5% loss on Tuesday and a technical breach below the 20-day EMA for the first time since October.
Highlights
- Alphabet stock breaks below 20-day EMA as RSI confirms continued selling pressure
- EU fines and US-EU tension raise investor concerns around tech regulatory risks
- Waymo’s $100B valuation supports long-term growth despite near-term price weakness
The 20-day EMA, now positioned at $307.6, has flipped into short-term resistance. This technical posture puts additional pressure on today's premarket gains unless sustained buying pushes price decisively above that level. The underlying weakness reflects a broader cooling in AI-led tech sentiment, exacerbated by soft forecasts from Oracle and Broadcom that have cast doubt on the durability of AI infrastructure spending.
Alphabet price dynamic (Nov - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview
Adding to the headwinds is regulatory pressure from the European Union, which recently fined Alphabet nearly $3.44 billion. The mounting legal actions targeting Big Tech have drawn a sharp response from the United States, where the Trade Representative’s office accused the EU of discriminatory conduct against American firms. This raises the risk of potential trade retaliation, which may weigh further on investor sentiment toward U.S. technology stocks.
Alphabet RSI confirms selling strength, while institutional support signals long-term trend
In the background, however, Alphabet’s growth engines are still attracting bullish calls from institutional players. Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle unit, is reportedly preparing to raise more than $10 billion at a valuation north of $100 billion, suggesting confidence in the company’s longer-term innovation narrative. Reinforcing this sentiment, BMO Capital has raised its price target for GOOGL to $343, well above its all-time high of $328.8.
Despite this bullish institutional posture, near-term technicals suggest further downside risk. The 4-hour RSI is currently in bearish territory, and failure to close above the 20-day EMA in today's session would confirm that the downtrend is not yet exhausted. For now, the bearish setup dominates unless price reclaims and holds above the short-term moving average.
In recent analysis, we discussed how Alphabet hovered near $308 as delayed macro data stalled investor conviction. AI growth projections and expanding hyperscaler capex supported its long-term valuation outlook.
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