Alphabet stock eyes record high as 2026 begins with breakout from downward trendline

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Highlights

Alphabet ends 2025 up 64.5% as AI peers face deeper drawdowns
Alphabet breaks December trendline as price bounces off 20-day EMA support
GOOGL targets $328.8 after rally to four-week high confirms bullish continuation

This rally followed a rebound from the 20-day EMA at $310 and was significant enough to trigger a breakout above a descending trendline that had restricted upward moves throughout December.

That breakout marks an important shift in sentiment. Since peaking at an all-time high of $328.8 in November, GOOGL stock has trended lower throughout December. The rejection from that all-time high was reinforced by the trendline, which, until last week, signaled investor hesitation. However, the bullish reaction on Friday broke through that technical resistance and followed a steady recovery that began in mid-December from a low at $296. This upward move now forms a bullish continuation pattern targeting the prior record high of $328.8.

Alphabet price chart (Nov 2025 - Jan 2026). Source: Tradingview

Although Alphabet closed Friday at $315.5 after the intraday spike, the price structure still reflects a positive setup. The 20-day EMA has now emerged as near-term support at $312.6, anchoring the current bullish structure. As long as the price holds above this level, the uptrend bias toward retesting the record high stays intact.

Alphabet leads the AI cycle, but capital spending pressure could weigh on supply partners

From a broader fundamental perspective, Alphabet was the standout performer of the AI trade in 2025. Despite a 2.25% loss in December, the company closed the year up by 64.5%. That outperformance contrasts sharply against key AI names such as Oracle, Broadcom, and CoreWeave, which saw steep drawdowns of 20% to 35% from their peaks. The divergence reflects investor repricing around capital expenditure efficiency and the sustainability of AI-driven revenues.

Looking ahead, Alphabet may encounter pressure to scale back data center spending in 2026 as shareholders push for tighter capital controls. Such developments could affect suppliers and hardware partners linked to AI infrastructure buildout. Yet so far, companies aligned to Google’s ecosystem have outperformed those tethered to OpenAI, reinforcing Alphabet's edge in the current AI cycle.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Alphabet’s 133% rally since April stalled below a key bearish trendline. December weakness ended its eight-month advance as GOOGL consolidated near $313.5 into year-end.

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