New ad formats and Egypt ban weigh on Roblox stock

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Roblox slides 3.90% to $64.71 today

Highlights

Roblox will report Q4 2025 financial results after market close on February 5, 2025, with expected quarterly revenue of $2.0766 billion.
The company recently launched new advertising formats—including a premium video ad unit and expanded programmatic partnerships—but faces a complete platform block in Egypt due to regulatory safety concerns.
Roblox shares trade at $64.71, well below all key averages (MA-20: $76.50, MA-50: $84.02, MA-200: $103.04), reflecting strong bearish momentum and a likely trading range of $61.00 to $67.00 in the near term.

Revenue prospects and ad rollout counter Egypt ban as catalysts diverge

Roblox is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after market close on February 5, 2025, with the company expected to post quarterly revenue of approximately $2.0766 billion. The company has recently introduced new advertising formats, including a premium video ad unit on its app homepage and expanded its programmatic partnerships. Additionally, the Supreme Council for Media Regulation in Egypt, in coordination with the National Telecom Regulatory Authority, announced a decision to block Roblox in the country, citing safety concerns.

Bearish momentum persists as technicals signal stretched downside

From a technical standpoint, the nearest dynamic resistance is at the Ichimoku Kijun ($77.81), and current price action clearly reflects persistent seller dominance below all key averages. Daily momentum indicators reinforce a bearish outlook, with both the MACD and ADX signaling continued downward momentum. The RSI is nearing oversold levels at 33.88, while the Stochastic RSI and CCI both confirm oversold conditions, suggesting the downside may be stretched in the short term. Bull/Bear Power is deeply negative (–4.74), underlining heavy seller control, and the Awesome Oscillator supports this sustained bearish momentum.

Downward drift favored as low upside odds limit reversal risk

Over the next five trading days, the typical volatility range is projected between $61.00 and $67.00, consistent with recent price behavior. The probability of a price increase remains quite low (less than 20%), so additional declines are more likely. A sideways move within the $61.00 – $67.00 band is the baseline scenario, with a bullish shift requiring a breakout above $67.00. A drop below $61.00 would likely trigger a new bearish phase, targeting lower weekly lows.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, notes continued strong selling pressure in Roblox, with price held firmly below all major moving averages and no technical evidence of reversal. He believes that recent regulatory news from Egypt and oversold signals on daily indicators point to persistent risk and limited upside in the near term. Cautious sentiment prevails, with a base scenario of sideways movement between $61.00 and $67.00 and little probability for a breakout. "Until $67.00 is broken to the upside, the risk of further decline remains too high for any bullish positioning."

Previously it was reported that Roblox Corporation is trading well below its key moving averages, with persistent selling pressure indicated by bearish momentum across short-, medium-, and long-term technical indicators. Current readings from MACD, ADX, and multiple oscillators confirm the dominance of sellers and high volatility, while the nearest resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level, with no clear support established at these lower price levels.

Source of Data: RBLX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.