Nvidia stock falls 1.8% amid proposal to sell older-generation chips to China

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Highlights

Nvidia shares declined 1.8% as investors reacted to renewed debate over exporting older-generation AI chips to China.
A senior U.S. lawmaker signaled openness to allowing sales of legacy Hopper chips once America secures a technological lead over China.
The proposal could unlock incremental revenue for Nvidia, but policy uncertainty continues to cap near-term upside.

From a technical standpoint, Nvidia remains in a medium-term uptrend but is showing signs of near-term exhaustion just below the psychological $200 level. The stock has repeatedly failed to sustain a break above the $198–$205 resistance zone, which coincides with prior swing highs and heavy volume distribution seen late last year.

Immediate support is located at $180, followed by a stronger demand zone at $172–$175, where buyers previously stepped in during January’s correction. A decisive move below $172 would shift momentum bearish and expose $160 as the next downside target.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (December 2025 - February 2026). Source: TradingView

On moving averages, Nvidia is currently trading slightly above its 50-day moving average, which sits in the high-$170s to low-$180s area, reinforcing short-term support. The 200-day moving average remains well below current price levels, confirming that the longer-term structural uptrend is intact. However, the narrowing distance between price and the 50-day average suggests weakening upside momentum. Relative strength indicators are neutral-to-slightly overbought after the recent rebound, and volume has tapered during the latest push higher — typically a sign of consolidation rather than immediate breakout potential.

Ro Khanna signals conditional support for older Nvidia chip exports

A key development shaping Nvidia’s geopolitical outlook comes from Representative Ro Khanna, the new ranking Democrat on the House Select Committee on China, who signaled openness to allowing sales of older-generation Nvidia “Hopper” chips to China. His comments mark a notable shift in tone compared to his predecessor, Raja Krishnamoorthi, who previously co-sponsored legislation aimed at blocking such exports. While Khanna stopped short of explicitly endorsing President Donald Trump’s decision to permit sales of Nvidia’s H200 chip to China, he made clear he could support exports of legacy technology once the U.S. secures a durable technological lead.

Khanna drew a clear distinction between older Hopper-based chips, such as the H200 released in 2024, and Nvidia’s more advanced architectures. He stated that the U.S. “certainly shouldn’t be sending” next-generation Blackwell or upcoming Rubin chips to China, emphasizing the need to protect cutting-edge AI capabilities. However, he indicated that after establishing a two- to three-year advantage, he would be comfortable with U.S. firms selling older chips for commercial applications. The message is pragmatic: safeguard strategic leadership in advanced AI, but allow monetization of prior-generation hardware once it no longer represents the technological frontier.

This position introduces a more nuanced policy framework that could benefit Nvidia without fully removing geopolitical risk. Allowing Hopper sales would not restore unrestricted access to China, but it could reopen a meaningful revenue stream from a market that was materially constrained under tighter export controls. At the same time, political divisions remain visible: while Khanna appears more flexible, the Republican chair of the committee has criticized the administration’s decision to allow H200 sales. For Nvidia, the takeaway is incremental upside potential tied to older inventory and extended product cycles — but with continued policy uncertainty surrounding its most advanced AI platforms.

Price prediction points to range trade before breakout attempt

In the short term, Nvidia is likely to remain range-bound between $180 and $200. The current pullback of 1.8% does not materially damage the technical structure but suggests limited immediate upside without fresh news. Momentum indicators are flattening, reinforcing the view that the market is waiting for a catalyst before committing to a directional breakout.

In the base case scenario, the stock consolidates above $180 and makes another attempt to test the $198–$205 zone within the next two to three weeks, with a daily close above $205 on strong volume opening the door toward $220 in the near term. Such a move would likely coincide with renewed institutional inflows and stronger participation across the broader semiconductor sector.

UBS raised its price target on Nvidia to $245 from $235 and maintained a Buy rating, citing stronger-than-expected AI demand ahead of earnings. The bank expects fiscal Q4 revenue to reach about $67.5 billion, above guidance, supported by resilient Taiwan export data and continued hyperscaler spending.

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