Nvidia stock jumps 1.3% as UBS lifts price target to $245

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Nvidia stock jumps

Highlights

Nvidia shares climbed 1.3% to $191.01 as UBS raised its price target to $245, reinforcing bullish sentiment ahead of earnings.
The stock is consolidating below key resistance at $200, with technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout if buying momentum strengthens.
Short-term price direction will likely depend on earnings results and guidance, with $210–$225 as upside targets and $178 as critical support.

From a technical perspective, Nvidia is trading just below a key psychological and technical resistance zone at $195–$200. This area has capped upside attempts in recent sessions and aligns with short-term swing highs on the daily chart. A sustained break above $200 would mark a bullish continuation pattern and likely trigger momentum buying toward $210 initially, followed by $225.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $185, which coincides with recent intraday pullbacks and short-term consolidation lows. A stronger support base stands at $178–$180, near the 50-day moving average. The 200-day moving average, positioned significantly lower near the mid-$150s, continues to slope upward, confirming that the long-term trend remains firmly bullish.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (December 2025 - February 2026). Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators are neutral to mildly positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the 55–60 zone, suggesting room for further upside before entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is attempting a bullish crossover on the daily timeframe, signaling building upside momentum if confirmed by volume expansion.

UBS upgrade reinforces AI earnings optimism

UBS raised its price target on Nvidia to $245 from $235, maintaining a Buy rating and citing stronger-than-expected demand trends heading into earnings. The bank pointed to resilient Taiwan export data related to AI servers and GPUs, suggesting that hyperscaler demand remains robust. UBS expects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to exceed company guidance, projecting roughly $67.5 billion, with potential acceleration into the following quarter.

The broader market backdrop also supports Nvidia’s bullish narrative. AI infrastructure spending continues at a rapid pace, with major cloud providers expanding data center capacity. Nvidia remains the dominant supplier of high-performance GPUs powering generative AI workloads, and competitors have yet to materially erode its market share in the premium segment.

That said, risks persist. China-related restrictions remain a headwind, and any incremental tightening of export controls could pressure forward guidance. Valuation is another consideration. Nvidia continues to trade at elevated earnings multiples relative to historical norms, meaning expectations are high. Any earnings miss or cautious outlook could trigger sharp short-term volatility.

Price forecast points to breakout above $200 in near term

In the short term, the $200 level remains the pivot. A daily close above $200 with strong volume would likely accelerate gains toward $210 within days, followed by a test of $225 in the coming weeks. If bullish earnings momentum continues, the UBS target of $245 becomes a realistic medium-term objective during the next quarter.

Conversely, failure to break $200 could keep Nvidia locked in a consolidation band between $178 and $200 through late February. A breakdown below $178 would shift the near-term outlook to bearish and open the door to $170, though this scenario currently appears less probable given supportive momentum and analyst upgrades.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Nvidia must strictly comply with export license conditions on advanced H200 AI chips shipped to China, as part of coordinated rules aimed at limiting Beijing’s access to high-performance semiconductors without U.S. oversight. He emphasized that Nvidia “must live with” these guardrails and deferred questions about trusting China’s compliance to President Donald Trump, highlighting the political sensitivity surrounding the restrictions.

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