Natural gas price forecast: Venezuelan gas revival clouds $3 recovery

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Natural gas price forecast

Highlights

Natural gas holds near $3, with the mid-2025 uptrend line now the key level to defend.
Price is below the 20, 50, 100 and 200 EMAs, keeping the technical bias bearish.
New supply pathways, including Shell’s 4.5 Tcf Dragon project, reinforce longer-term headwinds.

The latest slide has left traders focused less on chasing rebounds and more on whether the market can stabilize without a new demand shock. If the trendline holds, short covering could spark a tactical bounce. If it fails, the next downside reference shifts quickly toward the mid-$2s.

Charts show heavy overhead resistance

Technically, the structure remains weak. The contract is trading below a dense band of moving averages that often acts as supply during downtrends. The 20 EMA sits near $3.46, with the 50 and 100 EMAs around $3.75 and $3.78, while the 200 EMA is near $3.66. With the price beneath that entire cluster, rebounds risk stalling into resistance before momentum can turn.

NG price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The Supertrend level near $4.09 underscores the same message. Trend indicators are still positioned far above spot, reflecting how much ground the market lost after the late-January spike. That leaves the rising long-term trendline just under current prices as the line in the sand. A sustained close below it would shift the technical conversation from “stabilization” to “breakdown,” with $2.50 emerging as a more realistic destination than a distant tail risk.

Supply headlines add to a cautious outlook

On the fundamental side, traders are weighing softer post-winter demand against supply signals that point to more gas available over time. Shell said recent U.S. general licenses for Venezuelan oil and gas exploration allow it to advance the Dragon gas project, a field estimated at 4.5 trillion cubic feet. The goal is to pipe volumes to Atlantic LNG in Trinidad and Tobago, with first production targeted within three years.

Separately, ExxonMobil is assessing the scale of natural gas resources in Guyana’s Stabroek Block, work that could eventually support export infrastructure. These projects do not change tomorrow’s balances, but they reinforce the market’s longer-term sensitivity to incremental supply.

Near term, the demand picture is seasonally fading, while U.S. LNG exports remain elevated and continue drawing on domestic supply. Trade frictions between the U.S. and China have also complicated LNG flow patterns, adding another variable to a market already prone to abrupt repricing.

As previously discussed, natural gas has repeatedly struggled once the winter weather premium fades, with the market vulnerable to sharp mean reversion and liquidation when key round numbers give way. The current test near $3 carries the same implication. Hold support, and a bounce is plausible; lose it, and the path lower can open quickly.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.