Cisco stock forecast for 2030: Can infrastructure push CSCO to $150 despite 12% margin collapse?

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Cisco infrastructure margin squeeze

Highlights

Cisco trades at $77.75, testing critical support at the 100 EMA and ascending trendline after sharp rejection from $89 highs.
Stock could reach $130-170 by 2030 if memory costs normalize and infrastructure scales to $10-15 billion annually.
CSCO posted record $15.35B revenue, $2.1B orders, but gross margins fell 120 basis points to 67.5% on 400% memory price surge.

Mark Patterson, the CFO, said that prices for High Bandwidth Memory had gone up about 400% year over year because of high demand in data centers, which caused a shortage of supply. The gross margin dropped 120 basis points to 67.5%, and the guidance for Q3 was 65.5% to 66.5%, down from 68% before. Operating cash flow dropped 19% to $1.8 billion. Markets punished the margin compression, not the top-line beat.

Chart shows stock testing critical trendline support

Cisco is attempting to stabilize after a sharp rejection from recent highs. The Supertrend indicator at $81.79 sits above current price in bearish mode. All four EMAs are positioned above current price, with the 100 EMA at $77.76 serving as the immediate battleground level.

CSCO price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

An ascending trendline from the lows has been providing support throughout the uptrend. The stock spiked to nearly $89 before pulling back to the current $77-78 range, representing about a 12-13% decline. A close below $76.50 would break the ascending trendline and likely trigger a move toward the 200 EMA at $75.26.

Infrastructure acceleration clashes with margin compression

The infrastructure business is growing faster than expected. In the second quarter, orders for hyperscalers reached $2.1 billion, up from $1.3 billion in the first quarter. Management thinks that infrastructure orders for the whole year will be more than $5 billion, with more than $3 billion in recognized revenue coming from hyperscalers alone. Orders from neocloud, sovereign, and enterprise customers, in addition to cloud giants, reached $350 million in Q2, and the pipeline is worth more than $2.5 billion.

High Bandwidth Memory prices jumped roughly 400% year-over-year. Cisco responded by increasing its advanced purchase commitments by $1.8 billion sequentially. This secures supply but ties up cash and introduces inventory risk if demand softens. Memory costs are the single biggest near-term headwind. If prices stabilize or decline in the second half of 2026 as new supply comes online, margins recover.

Campus networking remains Cisco's largest and most profitable business. Networking revenue grew 21% in Q2 to $8.3 billion. Enterprise customers are refreshing their entire operational stack rather than buying individual switches. This cycle is driven by aging infrastructure, the need for Wi-Fi 7, and preparing networks for intelligent applications. Campus networking is higher-margin and less volatile than hyperscaler business, providing ballast while Cisco invests in infrastructure at lower margins.

What investors should monitor

Memory cost trends are critical. If High Bandwidth Memory prices stabilize in the second half of 2026, margins recover. Infrastructure order growth and whether hyperscaler orders sustain the $2 billion-plus quarterly pace matter for revenue trajectory. Campus networking product orders and whether the refresh cycle maintains double-digit growth validate the high-margin base business. Insider selling deserves monitoring after seven executives sold $3.05 million in stock on February 10, one day before earnings.

By 2030, CSCO's valuation will show whether memory costs normalized, infrastructure revenue diversified beyond hyperscalers, and the campus refresh cycle sustained multi-year demand.

Recently, Cisco posted record Q2 revenue of $15.35 billion with $2.1 billion in infrastructure orders, but gross margins fell 120 basis points to 67.5% as memory prices surged 400%, triggering a 12% single-day decline.

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