-1.00% for US Dollar vs South Korean Won — Momentum stays bullish despite sharp pullback

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US Dollar vs South Korean Won slides 1.00%

Highlights

The South Korean won briefly surpassed ₩1,500 per US dollar amid heightened regional tensions, reaching levels last seen during the global financial crisis.
Korean won and equities experienced volatility tied to shifting investor sentiment, but risk appetite improved after strong Wall Street performance.
Technicals indicate a strong bullish trend with overbought momentum; USD/KRW expected to trade in the ₩1,460–₩1,490 range, with probability favoring further gains.

Risk-on sentiment emerges after market swings and renewed bargain hunting

The South Korean won was impacted by escalating regional tensions, as it briefly moved past the 1,500 per US dollar mark in overnight trading on March 4, 2026, marking a milestone last seen during the global financial crisis. Movements in the currency pair remained closely linked to volatility in the South Korean stock market and changing investor sentiment. Renewed risk-on sentiment later emerged following overnight gains on Wall Street, leading to increased activity from bargain hunters, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bullish structure persists as momentum turns mixed and overbought

Technically, USD/KRW remains well above its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, confirming a bullish structure in the short, medium, and long term. The Ichimoku Kijun level at ₩1,462.19 now acts as immediate support. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: the daily MACD is neutral and ADX suggests a weak trend, while RSI at 64.19 leans bullish, but both Stochastic RSI (92.41) and CCI (222.65) indicate the asset is heavily overbought. Bull/Bear Power favors buyers, also reflecting overbought conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator tracks the overall bullish trend, while the session opened with a gap lower and only modest recovery near session highs, within low volatility and a narrow trading range.

Upside favored amid high probability, but resistance may limit gains

For the coming five trading days, USD/KRW is likely to fluctuate within a typical volatility band of ₩1,460 to ₩1,490. The probability of further price appreciation remains high (above 80%), while downside movement is considered less likely. The baseline scenario is for sideways consolidation between current support and resistance levels. A push above ₩1,490 could fuel additional gains if buying persists, while a drop below ₩1,460 might prompt profit taking toward the MA-50, though prevailing signals continue to favor further upside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the USD/KRW pair maintaining strong bullish momentum above key moving averages. He notes that macroeconomic and sentiment-driven factors, such as recent regional tensions and shifts in global risk appetite, have provided a firm tailwind for the US dollar. Despite some overbought readings in technical indicators, the expert expects upside potential to persist. Karapetjanc believes short-term consolidation is likely, but upward moves remain favored. "If buying momentum holds above ₩1,460, I see room for USD/KRW to break higher toward ₩1,490 and beyond."

Last time, analysts noted that USD/KRW was trading firmly above key moving averages, highlighting solid bullish momentum across short to long-term timeframes, with support defined by the Ichimoku kijun and resistance just below recent highs. However, mixed momentum signals—such as neutral MACD, weak ADX, an overbought CCI, and divergent oscillators—suggest limited near-term upside and the potential for consolidation unless key supports are breached.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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