Euro vs Forint price prediction: Is correction looming? EUR/HUF under 389 after losing 0.53%

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Euro vs forint slips 0.53% today

Highlights

EUR/HUF is structurally supported above short-, medium-, and long-term trend indicators, maintaining a bullish technical profile on daily charts.
Momentum signals are mixed, with daily oscillators suggesting underlying strength, while intraday readings reveal short-term bearish pressure and overbought conditions.
Expected trading range is 386.00–391.50 Ft over the next five days, with lower probability of sustained upside and risk of further decline if 386.00 Ft support breaks.

Bullish daily momentum diverges from intraday selling pressure

Momentum diagnostics are mixed with a daily MACD and ADX in “Buy” territory, suggesting underlying bullishness, although strong bearish signals surface in most intraday timeframes. RSI is moderately firm at 58.178, and CCI also points to mild buyer control, but the Stoch RSI is deeply oversold, indicating potential for near-term reversal. BBP on the daily frame signals overbought conditions, hinting at elevated buyer dominance, though most short-term intraday frames (including AO) lean bearish or oversold, amplifying the divergence between short-term weakness and daily resilience. The pair opened with minimal gap and, after a 0.53% drop, trades near the day’s low within a moderately volatile range, setting an overall tone of selling pressure after the open and lack of pronounced rebound.

Further declines favored amid weak upside probability near support

Looking ahead, the expected range for the next five trading days is 386.00–391.50 Ft, with the current price positioned closer to short-term support. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained upward move, making a further decline the more likely scenario. In the typical volatility band relative to current levels, EUR/HUF fluctuates between support at 386.00 Ft and resistance at 391.50 Ft. A bullish scenario would require a convincing push above 391.50 Ft, which could trigger buying activity, while a bearish break below 386.00 Ft may accelerate declines due to persistent selling momentum and overbought readings reverting lower.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/HUF under firm technical support but notes growing short-term selling pressure. He emphasizes the divergence between bullish daily signals and bearish intraday momentum. The analyst remains cautious, citing resistance at 391.50 Ft as a hurdle and sees further downside as likely unless 386.00 Ft breaks convincingly. "Until EUR/HUF reclaims 391.50 Ft with strong follow-through, I remain defensive and expect sellers to stay in control."

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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