+0.61% for US Dollar vs Colombian Peso as buyers test resistance after volatile open

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US Dollar vs Colombian Peso up 0.61%

Highlights

Oil and gas prices spiked after Iranian strikes, contributing to further strength in the US Dollar and pressuring risk assets.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady in a hawkish stance and signaled fewer expected cuts, raising prospects of rates staying restrictive.
USD/COP remains under bearish pressure, expected to consolidate between COL$3,695 and COL$3,735 with major indicators signaling downside risk.

Dollar demand rises on hawkish Fed and energy price surge

Oil and gas prices have surged following Iranian strikes, while the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at current levels in a hawkish hold, indicating that rates are expected to remain mildly restrictive. Fed funds futures now anticipate fewer rate cuts over the next year, with estimates dropping from -60 basis points before February 27 to -9 basis points. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has stated that policy remains appropriate and confirmed that the possibility of a rate hike was discussed. The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision, combined with higher energy costs and tightening by other central banks, has increased demand for the US Dollar and placed pressure on risk assets.

Mixed momentum signals as intraday buyers test resistance

Momentum on D1 remains weak, with MACD in negative territory and signaling a sell, while ADX at 15.20 points to a lack of clear directional strength. Both RSI (42.45) and CCI (–74.86) are in sell territory, as is Stoch RSI, which is also flagged as oversold — suggesting downside exhaustion despite ongoing bearish pressure. BBP shows a value of 6.73 and an overbought forecast, highlighting buyer efforts intraday, although the AO is neutral and does not strongly support either side. The session opened just below yesterday’s close, indicating no appreciable gap, and the price is now near today’s high after moving up 0.61% (COL$22.58). Volatility today is moderate and the tone since the open has been strong with prices pushing toward the upper end of the range. Notably, oscillator and momentum signals are diverging, with momentum still negative but some intraday metrics suggesting buyers are active.

Downside risk outweighs rebound amid weak technical outlook

Looking ahead, the expected price range over the next five trading days is COL$3,695 to COL$3,735, adjusted for current market volatility. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a significant price increase, with further downside seen as much more likely based on all four weekly trend indicators pointing to sell. The baseline scenario is for USD/COP to consolidate within this corridor. A bullish outcome would require a sustained move above COL$3,750, challenging the immediate resistance. In a bearish scenario, a breakdown below COL$3,695 would put renewed pressure on support and reinforce the longer-term negative trend.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/COP under sustained bearish pressure, with technical indicators firmly negative and little evidence of a reversal. He believes the hawkish stance from the Fed and elevated energy prices are supporting the US Dollar, but intraday buyer presence is weak and momentum remains soft. The base case remains further consolidation below COL$3,735, with any rally capped by strong resistance at COL$3,746.44. "Unless we see a clear breakout above COL$3,750, there is little reason to expect a bullish turn — I remain cautious and defensive."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/COP was under persistent bearish pressure, with technical signals and economic headwinds maintaining a negative bias for the pair. The current analysis not only reinforces this view with ongoing downside risks but also highlights that any sustained move below the COL$3,695 support could accelerate further losses and redefine the prevailing trend.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.