Microsoft stock price forecast: Downside risk persists as MSFT closes below $373

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Microsoft drops 2.63% to $372.90 today

Highlights

Microsoft’s quarterly earnings and revenue both exceeded analyst estimates, with revenue rising 16.7% year-over-year to $81.27 billion.
OpenAI remains dependent on Microsoft, which holds a 27% diluted stake and backs a reported $625 billion artificial intelligence backlog.
MSFT trades below major moving averages with persistent downside momentum; expected to move sideways between $370 and $386, with a high risk of further declines.

Earnings beat and AI exposure as broader selling persists

Microsoft reported quarterly earnings per share of $4.14 and revenue of $81.27 billion, both above analyst expectations and reflecting a 16.7% year-over-year increase. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.91 per share, payable on June 11, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 21, 2026. OpenAI's investor disclosures indicated significant reliance on Microsoft for funding and compute resources due to its 27% diluted stake, while Microsoft’s artificial intelligence backlog was reported at approximately $625 billion, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Entrenched seller control amid oversold and bearish indicators

Technical signals for MSFT confirm ongoing seller dominance: the price remains well below short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages (SMA-20, SMA-50, SMA-200), and the Ichimoku Kijun at $396.59 marks immediate overhead resistance. MACD and ADX on both daily and weekly timeframes signal a persistent sell bias, while RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI point to oversold conditions. BBP highlights intraday seller control, and the Awesome Oscillator is aligned with the prevailing bearish trend, reinforcing downside momentum. Trading near the daily low with no bullish divergence observed reflects high volatility and sustained intraday pressure.

Lower probability of rebound as negative momentum limits upside

Over the next five trading days, MSFT is expected to oscillate within a typical volatility band between $370 and $386. The probability of near-term price gains is low (less than 20%), and further declines are the more likely scenario. The base case is sideways stabilization in the defined range, with a potential upward reversal requiring a break above $396.59, opening the path toward $386.13. A decisive bearish move below $370 could trigger a slide toward new local lows as oversold signals and momentum remain negative.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Microsoft's strong fundamentals and ongoing AI leadership providing a firm backdrop even as technicals point to continued short-term weakness. He notes that earnings and revenue beat expectations, with management highlighting robust expansion in artificial intelligence. However, significant bearish pressure and volatility are likely to persist and keep the price capped below key resistance. The analyst expects sideway consolidation but remains confident in the company’s macro and sector tailwinds. "Short-term volatility offers opportunity for patient investors — as Microsoft strengthens its AI leadership, the long-term macro case remains highly attractive in my view."

Earlier, analysts noted that Microsoft shares were under persistent selling pressure and facing heightened regulatory risks, with a cautious outlook prevailing. The latest earnings beat and robust AI growth metrics in the current article underscore that, despite improving fundamentals, the technical environment remains bearish—making a break above $396.59 the critical signal for any potential upside reversal.

Source of Data: MSFT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.