Shifting global policy concerns boost Gold higher in volatile session

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold jumps 1.46% to $4,751.95 today

Highlights

Gold's limited rebound is driven by declining Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks.
Outflows from gold ETFs totaled 34 tonnes amid Turkish central bank gold sales, raising fears of further central bank selling.
Technical signals suggest a bullish bias for the coming week with an expected price range of $4,585–$4,837 and strong upward momentum.

ETF outflows and central bank sales deepen as yields dip and risks persist

Gold prices are experiencing a limited rebound as Treasury yields fall in conjunction with persistent market concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions. Gold-backed ETFs saw sustained outflows last week, with total withdrawals of approximately 34 tonnes across all major regions. The Turkish central bank’s significant gold sales have raised concerns about potential similar moves by other central banks to defend their currencies. Additional market stress points include continuing oil supply risks and shifting expectations regarding central bank policies and interest rates.

Intraday rebound tests resistance as mixed indicators fuel volatility

On the technical side, gold’s position above the SMA-20 and solidly above the long-term SMA-200 supports the continuation of upward momentum in the short term, even as the price remains below the medium-term SMA-50. Immediate resistance is located at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $4,671.31. Daily indicators are mixed: MACD and ADX both indicate short-term bearishness, while RSI trends slightly lower in neutral territory. Stoch RSI and BBP point to overbought conditions with waning seller dominance, and both CCI and the Awesome Oscillator do not suggest a clear trend. After opening with a gap down, gold has rebounded strongly, setting a new intraday high amid pronounced volatility.

Bullish bias persists with upside risk if resistance breaks

For the next five trading days, the expected volatility band is $4,585 to $4,837, consistent with typical price swings at these market levels. Weekly indicators mostly support a bullish bias: three of four core signals on the weekly timeframe (RSI, ADX, MACD, MA-50) remain positive, giving a high probability (above 80%) for either consolidation above $4,585 or further upside. The base forecast anticipates sideways movement within the range of $4,585 to $4,837. If gold breaks above immediate resistance, a push toward new local highs beyond $4,837 is possible, while failure to hold support at $4,671 – $4,657 could see the price testing $4,585 in the short term.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the current gold bounce as technically constructive but not yet convincing for a sustained rally. He sees outflows from ETFs, central bank sales, and lingering geopolitical risks as clear headwinds. The analyst remains focused on the resistance zone, with immediate direction hinging on the ability to hold above $4,657.42. "I remain cautious: unless gold reclaims $4,934.72, consolidation or further retracement remains my base case."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold’s price action was dominated by ongoing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and restrictive central bank policies, resulting in elevated short-term volatility. The current backdrop reinforces that narrative while adding new complexity from central bank gold sales and persistent ETF outflows, making the $4,837 level a critical threshold for bulls seeking confirmation of a sustained breakout.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.