U.S. Senate crypto market structure bill faces narrowing path to 2026 passage

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Highlights

Senate crypto market structure bill's progress hinges on May committee hearing, with stablecoin-yield disputes as the main unresolved issue blocking Banking Committee approval.
Lawmakers must still reconcile Senate and House versions, address ethics provisions targeting Trump and finalize regulator appointments, with limited legislative time before August recess and November midterm elections.
Galaxy estimates 50-50 or lower odds of 2026 passage due to unresolved issues and time constraints, despite industry urgency and ongoing crypto sector lobbying in Congress.

May committee window keeps bill alive

As reported by CoinDesk, lobbyists and a Senate aide say a committee hearing in May could preserve the bill's chances even as delays continue to consume a shrinking legislative window.

The measure has been slowed for months by a dispute over stablecoin rewards, with Republican Senator Thom Tillis still discussing banking-sector concerns. The aide says earlier negotiations over decentralized finance protections are effectively settled, leaving the stablecoin-yield issue as the main obstacle to Senate Banking Committee approval.

If the committee signs off, lawmakers still need to merge that text with the version already passed by the Senate Agriculture Committee. Additional revisions are also likely around ethics provisions that Democrats want to use to restrict senior government officials, especially President Donald Trump, from benefiting from crypto interests, as well as another demand tied to appointing a full slate of market regulators.

The House would then need to vote again because its earlier version differs significantly from the Senate draft. Trump is expected to be the easiest final step, although he introduced some uncertainty in March when he said he would not sign any bill until separate voter-citizenship legislation is approved.

Election calendar raises pressure on crypto industry

The Senate's schedule leaves limited room for the legislation before lawmakers depart Washington in August and shift into election mode ahead of the November midterms. Before then, the chamber is already facing competing priorities including Homeland Security funding, debate over the Iran war, voter identification disputes and nominations such as Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve.

The unresolved stablecoin issue stems from fallout linked to last year's GENIUS Act, with bank lobbyists arguing that some rewards programs could resemble deposit yield and threaten banks' business model. The White House has leaned toward the crypto industry's position by supporting some rewards structures that do not resemble interest on core bank deposits, while insiders say the current compromise would bar yield on products that act like deposit insurance but still allow programs closer to credit-card incentives.

Industry figures are pressing for immediate action. Digital Chamber Chief Executive Officer Cody Carbone says a markup is needed now, while Galaxy says in a research note planned for this week that the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 are roughly 50-50 and possibly lower because multiple unresolved issues still need to be settled in sequence under heavy time pressure.

If negotiations break down again, the measure could still face a low-probability final opening in the post-election lame-duck session. At the same time, crypto political groups are continuing to invest heavily in congressional races, aiming to build broader bipartisan support for future industry priorities even if the Clarity Act slips.

Stablecoin payment infrastructure is expanding into everyday commerce, with DoorDash working with Tempo to enable stablecoin payouts and transactions for customers, merchants, and drivers across dozens of countries. Our earlier coverage also noted how payment regulators are moving toward unified frameworks that would govern traditional, tokenized, and stablecoin payments under one set of rules—highlighting the broader push to modernize payments as stablecoins gain adoption.

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